南方电网技术2026，Vol.20Issue(3)：51-60,73,11.DOI:10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2026.03.006
基于山火跳闸敏感度的南方电网输电线路山火跳闸时空分布统计
Statistics on Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Wildfire Tripping on Transmission Lines of Southern Power Grid Based on the Sensitivity of Wildfire Tripping
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,affected by extreme weather,frequent wildfires have led to a significant increase in wildfire tripping incidents in the Southern Power Grid.To investigate the main influencing factors and their mechanisms behind wildfire tripping of transmission lines,data on wildfire warnings and tripping incidents along transmission corridors in Southern Power Grid region over the past five years are collected.Statistical analysis is conducted from both temporal and spatial dimensions,incorporating factors such as climate,terrain,and surface vegetation.Additionally,the concept of"transmission line wildfire tripping sensitivity"is proposed to represent the probability of wildfire-induced tripping per unit of wildfire warnings,effectively avoiding the logical fallacy of"correlation implies causation"in statistical analysis.Finally,by integrating flame spread models and air breakdown models,the underlying physical mechanisms of environmental factor influences are thoroughly analyzed.The results indicate that although wildfire warnings and tripping incidents in Southern Power Grid have increased year by year,thanks to diversified wildfire monitoring methods and timely firefighting measures,the overall wildfire tripping sensitivity has shown a declining trend annually.The findings of this study will assist grid operators in developing more targeted and differentiated wildfire management strategies based on field conditions.关键词
山火跳闸敏感度/山火告警/输电线路山火跳闸/时空分布Key words
wildfire tripping sensitivity/wildfire alert/wildfire tripping on transmission lines/temporal and spatiall distribution分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
吴骏,周游,周恩泽,王磊,马瑞康,魏瑞增..基于山火跳闸敏感度的南方电网输电线路山火跳闸时空分布统计[J].南方电网技术,2026,20(3):51-60,73,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52177070) （52177070）
中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目(GDKJXM20222559,GDKJXM20231429). Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52177070) （GDKJXM20222559,GDKJXM20231429）
the Science and Technology Project of China Southern Power Grid Co.,Ltd.(GDKJXM20222559,GDKJXM20231429). （GDKJXM20222559,GDKJXM20231429）
