生殖医学杂志2026，Vol.35Issue(3)：313-320,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-3845.2026.03.005
新鲜周期卵裂期胚胎移植妊娠结局的列线图模型建立及预测分析
Construction and analysis of a nomogram model for the prediction of pregnancy outcomes in fresh embryo transfer cycles with cleavage-stage embryo
摘要
Abstract
Objectives:To identify the independent factors influencing clinical outcomes of fresh-cycle cleavage-stage embryo transfer and to develop a nomogram prediction model with predictive performance analysis. Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on 543 cycles of patients who underwent fresh-cycle cleavage-stage embryo transfer at the Reproductive Medicine Department of Shanxi Provincial People's Hospital between March 2021 and May 2024.Qualified treatment cycles were randomly allocated(3∶1)to model development and validation cohorts.Independent predictors of clinical pregnancy were identified through univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression analyses.The R4.4.1 software package was used to establish a prediction model.Model discrimination was assessed via receiver operating characteristic(ROC)analysis,while predictive accuracy was evaluated using area under the curve(AUC)statistics and calibration plots. Results:The modeling and validation groups differed only in the distribution of infertility types(P＜0.05).Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that infertility type,basal follicle-stimulating hormone(FSH)level,endometrial thickness on the day of transfer,and the number of high-quality embryos transferred were independent factors influencing clinical pregnancy(P＜0.05).The infertility type,basal FSH level,and the number of high-quality embryos transferred were independent influencing factors for live birth(P＜0.05).The AUC values for the model group and the validation group,based on the predicted probabilities from the clinical pregnancy nomogram model,were 0.644[95％CI(0.592,0.696)]and 0.715[95％CI(0.619,0.810)],respectively.The calibration curve analysis revealed a practical linear relationship between the model-predicted probabilities and the actual ones. Conclusions:The prediction model constructed based on the infertility type,basal FSH level,endometrial thickness on the day of embryo transfer,and the number of high-quality embryos transferred can effectively forecast pregnancy outcomes following fresh-cycle cleavage-stage embryo transfer,demonstrating significant clinical utility and providing a valuable reference for clinical decision-making.关键词
新鲜周期/卵裂期胚胎/临床妊娠结局/列线图模型Key words
Fresh cycle/Cleavage-stage embryo/Clinical pregnancy outcome/Nomogram model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
曾良焜,刘晓云,李微,张婉婷,任文娟,袁彩霞,秦琴..新鲜周期卵裂期胚胎移植妊娠结局的列线图模型建立及预测分析[J].生殖医学杂志,2026,35(3):313-320,8.基金项目
山西省留学人员科技活动择优资助项目(2025057) （2025057）
山西省基础研究计划(20210302123384) （20210302123384）
山西省卫生健康委"四个一批"重点科研项目(2022XM25) （2022XM25）
