护理研究2026，Vol.40Issue(8)：1274-1280,7.DOI:10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.08.005
MDP和DELIKT谵妄风险预测模型在内科老年住院病人中的应用
Application of MDP and DELIKT delirium risk prediction models in elderly inpatients in internal medicine department
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To explore the independent influencing factors of delirium in elderly inpatients in internal medicine department using the Mayo Delirium Prediction Model(MDP)and Delirium Risk Tool(DELIKT),and to analyze the predictive performance of the two models.Methods:The study subjects were elderly inpatients in the internal medicine department of a tertiary grade A general hospital in Beijing city from January to December 2024.The occurrence of delirium in patients was predicted using MDP and DELIKT.The performance of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)and diagnostic indicators.Univariate analysis and Logistic regression analysis were conducted on 22 predictive factors to determine the independent influencing factors related to delirium.Results:The AUC values for external validation of MDP and DELIKT were 0.955 and 0.869 respectively,with sensitivities of 92.50%and 77.50%respectively,and specificities of 93.50%and 86.30%respectively.The results of Logistic analysis showed that history of delirium,CrAS scores,indwelling urinary catheter,age,and fall risk score were independent influencing factors for delirium in elderly inpatients in internal medicine department(P<0.05).Conclusions:Both MDP and DELIKT could be used for predicting the risk of delirium in elderly inpatients in internal medicine department.In the future,these two models could be integrated to develop a delirium prediction tool for elderly inpatients in internal medicine department in China.关键词
老年人/谵妄/预测模型/预测性能/外部验证/影响因素Key words
the elderly/delirium/prediction model/prediction performance/external validation/influencing factors引用本文复制引用
杨思佳,韩柳,于秋爽,范雪燕,张大华..MDP和DELIKT谵妄风险预测模型在内科老年住院病人中的应用[J].护理研究,2026,40(8):1274-1280,7.基金项目
海峡两岸医药卫生交流协会护理分会2024年度立项科研课题,编号:2024-CSMEA-NURSE002 （）
中医药高等教育学会临床教育研究会临床教学科学研究课题,编号:2023-010 （）
北京中医药大学基本科研业务费项目,编号:2022-JYB-XJSJJ-084 （）
