妇儿健康导刊2026，Vol.5Issue(6)：189-193,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2097-115X.2026.06.043
基于LASSO回归分析代谢组学指标对儿童重症肺炎支气管肺泡灌洗术预后的预测价值
Analysis of predictive value of metabonomics indicators for prognosis of bronchoalveolar lavage in children with severe pneumonia based on LASSO regression
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the predictive value of metabonomics indicators for prognosis of bronchoalveolar lavage(BAL)in children with severe pneumonia based on LASSO regression,and to provide a basis for clinical accurate evaluation of children's treatment outcomes and and the optimization of treatment decisions.Methods From June 2023 to February 2025,80 children with severe pneumonia who received BAL treatment were selected from Yancheng Maternal and Child Health Hospital.According to the quantitative criteria at 72 hours after treatment,60 children with good treatment response were included in the treatment-sensitive group(good prognosis),and 20 children with poor treatment response were included in the treatment-insensitive group(poor prognosis).Peripheral blood samples were collected from children in both groups,and ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry was used for untargeted metabonomics analysis.First,univariate analysis was performed to screen metabonomics indicators associated with prognosis,followed by LASSO regression to further screen key predictive indicators.The receiver operator characteristic(ROC)curve and the area under the curve(AUC)were used to verify the prognostic predictive efficacy of the metabonomics indicators.Results The results of the univariate analysis showed that lysophosphatidylcholine(LPC 16:0),sphingosine-1-phosphate(S1P),proline,citric acid,arachidonic acid,uridine diphosphate glucose(UDPG),canine urea,hypoxanthine,glycerophosphocholine,succinic acid,tryptophan,phosphatidylinositol,lactic acid,guanosine triphosphate,ceramides,and glucose-6-phosphate were all associated with treatment response in children with severe pneumonia(P<0.05),while lysophosphatidylethanolamine and glutamic acid showed no significant association with treatment response(P>0.05).Multivariate analysis using LASSO regression revealed that LPC 16:0,S1P,proline,arachidonic acid,canine urea,citric acid,and UDPG were factors influencing the prognosis of BAL in children with severe pneumonia(P<0.05).ROC analysis of the prediction based on these 7 key indicators showed that the AUC was 0.91(95%CI:0.86-0.95),indicating high predictive efficacy.Conclusion The seven metabonomics indicators including LPC 16:0 screened by LASSO regression have good predictive value for the prognosis of BAL in children with severe pneumonia,and can be used as important reference indicators for clinical evaluation of children's treatment outcomes and optimization of treatment decisions.关键词
儿童重症肺炎/代谢组学/支气管肺泡灌洗术/LASSO回归Key words
Severe pneumonia in children/Metabonomics/Bronchoalveolar lavage/LASSO regression分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
刘琳玲,祁静,李胜..基于LASSO回归分析代谢组学指标对儿童重症肺炎支气管肺泡灌洗术预后的预测价值[J].妇儿健康导刊,2026,5(6):189-193,5.基金项目
江苏省儿童早期发展与慢病防治重点实验室开放课题(YLT2024016) （YLT2024016）
江苏省盐城市卫健委医学科研项目(YK2024046). （YK2024046）
