生态环境学报2026，Vol.35Issue(4)：551-562,12.DOI:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2026.04.006
黄河源区生态系统健康时空演变与多情景模拟研究
Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Scenario-Based Simulation of Ecosystem Health in the Yellow River Source Region
摘要
Abstract
As the region serves as a critical ecological security barrier in China,the ecosystem health of the source region of the Yellow River directly influences the ecological stability and water resource security of the entire Yellow River Basin.To systematically reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and underlying mechanisms of ecosystem health in this region,this study established an ecosystem health assessment framework based on the Vigor-Organization-Resilience(VOR)model.Moran's I spatial autocorrelation analysis was applied to identify clustering patterns of ecosystem health,and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation(PLUS)model was employed to simulate future trends and potential impacts of ecosystem health under different development scenarios.The results show that:1)From 2005 to 2020,the ecosystem health index(EHI)exhibited a fluctuating trend of"decline followed by recovery,"with the mean EHI decreasing from 0.477 in 2005 to 0.427 in 2015 and rebounding to 0.441 in 2020.The spatial pattern remained stable,characterized by"higher values in the east and lower values in the west,"with high-health areas concentrated in the southeastern river valley wetlands and low-health areas clustered in the ecologically fragile alpine zones in the northwest.2)Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed significant high-high and low-low clusters of ecosystem health,indicating a relatively stable spatial structure.Ecological connectivity in high-value areas has been enhanced,while degradation pressure in low-value areas remains prominent.3)Scenario simulations suggest that under the cropland protection(GP)scenario in 2030,the mean EHI would increase to 0.454,and the area of high-health regions would expand to 9.31×103 km2,significantly exceeding the outcomes of the natural development(ND)and economic development(ED)scenarios.This highlights the positive effect of ecological conservation policies in improving ecosystem health.This study systematically elucidates the evolutionary patterns,spatial distribution,and driving mechanisms of ecosystem health in the source region of the Yellow River and underscores the critical role of ecological conservation policies in enhancing ecosystem resilience.The findings provide scientific and theoretical support for optimizing land use structures,formulating regional ecological conservation and management strategies,and promoting sustainable ecosystem development in the source region of the Yellow River.关键词
生态系统健康/时空演变/PLUS模型/情景模拟/黄河源区Key words
ecosystem health/spatiotemporal distribution/PLUS model/multi-scenario prediction/source region of the Yellow River分类
生物科学引用本文复制引用
杜嘉睿,宋芊,高文明..黄河源区生态系统健康时空演变与多情景模拟研究[J].生态环境学报,2026,35(4):551-562,12.基金项目
青海省基础研究计划项目(2024-ZJ-953) （2024-ZJ-953）
青海大学研究生科学研究与实践创新项目(qdkc-2554) （qdkc-2554）
