地质通报2026，Vol.45Issue(2)：320-336,17.DOI:10.12097/gbc.2024.07.011
气候变化和人类活动对黄淮海平原植被净初级生产力的影响
Impacts of climate changes and human activities on net primary productivity of vegetation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to reveal the spatio-temporal variation patterns of the net primary productivity(NPP)of vegetation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2001 to 2022,quantify the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to the changes in NPP,and deeply analyze its internal driving mechanisms,with the expectation of providing a scientific basis for regional ecological management,vegetation restoration,and the improvement of carbon sink capacity.[Methods]Based on multi-source data such as MODIS NPP data,meteorological observation data and land use,methods such as trend analysis,partial correlation analysis and multiple regression residual analysis were comprehensively applied to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of NPP and its response to climatic factors;Further,the enhanced regression tree(BRT)model was adopted to evaluate the relative importance and partial dependence of multiple factors such as climate change(temperature,precipitation)and human activities(land use degree,population density,etc.)on the changes in NPP.[Results]From 2001 to 2022,the NPP of vegetation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain generally showed a significant growth trend(with a growth rate of 5.19 gC·m-2·a-1),and spatially presented a pattern of being higher in the south and lower in the north.NPP is significantly positively correlated with precipitation,and precipitation is the main climatic factor affecting NPP.The changes in vegetation NPP are mainly driven by both climate change and human activities,with their contribution rates being 41.81%and 39.24%respectively.The results of the BRT model show that precipitation,land use degree and population density are the key factors influencing the spatial differentiation of NPP in 2020.[Conclusions]The changes in vegetation NPP in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain are the result of the combined effect of natural factors and human intervention.The rational regulation of precipitation resources and the optimization of land use structure are the key paths to maintain and enhance the productivity of the regional ecosystem.This study provides quantitative support for understanding the driving mechanism of vegetation dynamics and formulating regional ecological security strategies.关键词
净初级生产力/时空变化规律/气候变化/人类活动/黄淮海平原Key words
net primary productivity/spatio-temporal change law/climate change/human activities/Huang-Huai-Hai Plain分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张静,李状,杨俊泉,刘宏伟,李婷,王威..气候变化和人类活动对黄淮海平原植被净初级生产力的影响[J].地质通报,2026,45(2):320-336,17.基金项目
国家自然科学基金地质联合基金项目《北方农牧交错带生态退化的地质-生态-水文耦合机制与生态承载力阈值识别》(批准号:U2244230)和中国地质调查局项目《浑善达克沙地草地生态区自然生态调查》(编号:DD202607101906)、《华北地区自然资源与国土空间遥感监测》(编号:DD202607202804)、《京津冀协同发展区国土空间规划实施监测评价》(编号:DD202607203002)、《晋东-冀西太行山区易灾地质结构调查》(编号:DD202606101102) Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Joint Fund Project(No.U2244230),and the Project of China Geological Survey(Nos.DD202607101906,DD202607202804,DD202607203002,DD202606101102) （批准号:U2244230）
