植物保护2026，Vol.52Issue(2)：120-133,14.DOI:10.16688/j.zwbh.2025177
基于优化的MaxEnt模型预测印加孔雀草在中国的潜在地理分布
Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Tagetes minuta in China based on an optimized MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
Tagetes minuta is one of newly emerging invasive alien plants in China that has exhibited a rapid population expansion in recent years and has caused ecological damage in some areas.To identify the potential suitable habitats and future expansion trend of T.minuta and to reduce its ecological risk,this study employed an optimized MaxEnt model to predict its potential suitable distribution under current and future climate conditions.The model was developed based on global occurrence records of T.minuta and 52 environmental variables,including climatic factors,soil variables,human footprint index,and normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI).In addition,the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of T.minuta and the centroid migration trajectories of suitable habitats were analyzed.The results showed that under current climatic conditions,the potential suitable habitats of T.minuta are mainly distributed in North China,Central China,East China,South China and Southwest China,with a total area of 3.14 × 106 km2.Highly suitable areas are primarily distributed in eastern Shandong,southern Shanxi,western and central Henan,southern Sichuan,most parts of Yunnan and southern Xizang.Annual mean temperature,human footprint index,mean NDVI in April and isothermality were identified as the dominant environmental variables influencing the distribution of T.minuta.Under future climate scenarios with intensified greenhouse gas emissions,the suitable habitat range of T.minuta is projected to gradually expand northward,characterized by a rapid expansion of lowly suitable areas,a contraction and transformation of moderately suitable areas into lowly suitable areas,and a relatively stable distribution of highly suitable areas.关键词
印加孔雀草/适生区/MaxEnt模型/气候变化/入侵植物Key words
Tagetes minuta/suitable habitat/MaxEnt model/climate change/invasive plant分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
王庆云,王源海,罗恒毅,武宏檑,贾栋,胡军,杨军,王苑馨..基于优化的MaxEnt模型预测印加孔雀草在中国的潜在地理分布[J].植物保护,2026,52(2):120-133,14.基金项目
山西省现代农业产业技术体系建设专项(2025CYJSTX18) （2025CYJSTX18）
山西农业大学植物保护学院科研培育创新项目(ZBXY23A-10) （ZBXY23A-10）
