安徽农业大学学报2026，Vol.53Issue(1)：135-147,13.DOI:10.13610/j.cnki.1672-352x.20251103.001
基于"三类空间"的皖江流域国土发展潜力评价及驱动力研究
Evaluation of land development potential and driving force in the Wanjiang River Basin based on"ecology-agriculture-towns"space
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Under the dual background of national territorial spatial planning and ecological civiliza-tion construction,the Wanjiang River Basin serves as an important region connecting the Yangtze River Delta Eco-nomic Zone with central and western China.A scientific assessment of its national territorial spatial development po-tential is crucial for promoting regional coordinated development.[Method]This study took the Wanjiang River Ba-sin as the research object,constructed an evaluation index system for the"three types of space"based on land use data from seven periods between 1990 and 2022,and employed the entropy weight method,geodetic detector model,and standard deviation ellipse model to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of territorial space,eval-uates evaluate its development potential,and explore the migration path and driving mechanism of its center of gravity.[Result]The spatiotemporal evolution of the"three types of space"in the basin was primarily characterized by the conversion of agricultural space to urban space.The area of ecological space remained stable,while the area of agri-cultural space decreased gradually yet remained the dominant type,accounting for 56.06％of the total area in 2022.The area of urban space continued to expand,growing to 5 382.749 km2 by 2022.Both single-use and comprehensive spatial development potentials showed an overall upward trend,primarily spreading along the Yangtze River Eco-nomic Belt and urban centers toward surrounding areas.The key reason for the relative increase in comprehensive spatial development potential compared to single-use spatial potential was the shift from low-potential to high-potential areas.The area with high potential increased from 22.010 km2 in 1990 to 1 871.706 km2 in 2022.The cen-ter of development potential overall follows a northeast-southwest orientation,exhibiting a spatial distribution pattern of initial dispersion followed by concentration.Single-factor detection results indicated that nighttime light index,elevation,terrain undulation,and farmland density were the primary influencing factors(q＞0.4).Interaction detec-tion revealed that the interaction between the nighttime light index and elevation index played a significant explana-tory role,with the highest q value reaching 0.728.[Conclusion]While formulating the national spatial planning and economic development policy of the Wanjiang River Basin,it is essential to fully consider the evolution of develop-ment potential and its driving mechanisms,optimize the national spatial development pattern,and promote the coor-dinated development across the basin.关键词
三类空间/皖江流域/发展潜力评价/地理探测器模型Key words
three types of space/Wanjiang River Basin/development potential evaluation/Geodetector分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王成,彭涛,孙公波,夏宇,王夏楠..基于"三类空间"的皖江流域国土发展潜力评价及驱动力研究[J].安徽农业大学学报,2026,53(1):135-147,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(32201346) （32201346）
安徽省教育厅科学研究项目(2023AH050969) （2023AH050969）
