北京测绘2026，Vol.40Issue(4)：533-539,7.DOI:10.19580/j.cnki.1007-3000.2026.04.018
江西省陆地生态系统碳储量时空变化与预测
Spatiotemporal changes and prediction of carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystem of Jiangxi Province
摘要
Abstract
Land use change is a key driving factor affecting carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems.This study combined the mixed-cell cellular automata(MCCA)model for land use simulation with the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs(InVEST)model for carbon storage assessment to predict land use patterns and carbon storage under three scenarios in Jiangxi Province.The findings indicate that the land use pattern in Jiangxi Province from 2000 to 2020 is predominantly character-ized by forestland,while there has been a significant increase in construction land and a decline(decrease of 3.038×107 t)during this period in carbon storage.In the three scenarios,the total carbon storage of Jiangxi Province under the natural develop-ment scenario declines most seriously,which will decrease by 5.518×107 t(2.40%)for 2020-2060.Because the expansion of farmland occupies grassland and forestland with higher carbon density,the carbon storage under the farmland protection scenario will still decline,which will decrease by 3.181×107 t in 2020-2060.In contrast to the natural development sce-nario,the decline in carbon storage is less pronounced in the farmland protection scenario.The total carbon storage of Jiangxi Province is the best under the ecological protection scenario,with an increase of 3.720×106 t in 2020-2060.The findings are significant for regional carbon cycle research,climate change mitigation,and the promotion of sustainable regional development.关键词
土地利用/碳储量/混合元胞自动机(MCCA)模型/生态系统服务与权衡的综合评估(InVEST)模型/多情景Key words
land use/carbon storage/mixed-cell cellular automata(MCCA)model/integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs(InVEST)model/multiple scenarios分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘士彪,谢鹏..江西省陆地生态系统碳储量时空变化与预测[J].北京测绘,2026,40(4):533-539,7.基金项目
北京市自然科学基金(4214069) （4214069）
