北京林业大学学报2026，Vol.48Issue(4)：13-22,10.DOI:10.12171/j.1000-1522.20250428
基于CASA模型的黄土高原植被生产力时空动态及其对气候因子的响应
Spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation productivity and its response to climate factors in the Loess Plateau based on the CASA model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]As a typical ecologically fragile area,the evolution law and core driving mechanism of vegetation net primary productivity in the Loess Plateau are not yet clear against the backdrop of global climate change and the implementation of the Grain for Green Project for 20 years.This study focuses on the spatiotemporal dynamics,climate response,and future trends of NPP,aiming to provide scientific support for precise regulation of regional ecological restoration.[Method]Based on the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach model,the NPP of the Loess Plateau from 2000 to 2020 was estimated.Combining Theil Sen trend analysis,Mann Kendall significance test,Hurst exponent,and Pearson correlation analysis,the long-term spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of NPP and its response mechanism to climate factors were systematically explored.[Result](1)The annual average value of NPP on the Loess Plateau is 318.49 g/(m2·year),which shows a spatial distribution pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest.The high-value areas are concentrated in areas such as southern Shanxi and the Guanzhong Plain with superior water and heat,while the low value areas are distributed in areas such as the arid and rainless Ordos Plateau.(2)From 2000 to 2020,the overall NPP showed a significant upward trend,with an average annual growth rate of 6.34 g/(m2·year).Among them,forest land had the fastest growth rate,at 7.63 g/(m2·year),with a highly significant increase in the proportion of regions accounting for 60.77%,concentrated in key implementation areas such as Yulin and Yan'an in northern Shaanxi,which confirms the significant effectiveness of ecological engineering.(3)The Hurst exponent prediction shows that 61.08%of the regions'NPP may shift from an upward trend to a downward trend in the future,and 35.28%of the regions may continue to rise in the future.(4)Precipitation is the core driving factor for NPP increase,with a positive correlation in 95.24%of regions,while temperature has an inhibitory effect on vegetation growth in arid areas,clarifying the regional differentiation patterns driven by climate in semi-arid regions.[Conclusion]The vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau has achieved significant results in the implementation of the Grain for Green and Grassland Project for 20 years.In the future,special attention should be paid to the ecological reversal risk in 61.08%of the region.This study provides a scientific basis for the evaluation of regional ecological restoration effectiveness and adaptive management,and is of great significance for improving the global carbon cycle research system and promoting regional sustainable development.关键词
气候变化/植被净初级生产力(NPP)/时空演变/CASA模型/黄土高原Key words
climate change/net primary productivity/spatiotemporal evolution/CASA model/the Loess Plateau分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
范雯萱,刘金成..基于CASA模型的黄土高原植被生产力时空动态及其对气候因子的响应[J].北京林业大学学报,2026,48(4):13-22,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32371875),陕西省重点研发计划(2025NC-YBXM-209),武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室开放研究基金(24A01). （32371875）
