储能科学与技术2026，Vol.15Issue(4)：1302-1311,10.DOI:10.19799/j.cnki.2095-4239.2026.0189
含分布式储能系统的主动配电网负荷预测模型构建
Construction of an active distribution network load forecasting model with distributed energy storage system
摘要
Abstract
Short-term load forecasting(STLF)in active distribution networks(ADNs)with distributed energy storage systems(DESS)is complicated by operational disturbances,pronounced voltage fluctuations,and highly non-stationary load patterns.To improve forecasting accuracy while ensuring physical consistency under DESS integration,a short-term load forecasting model integrating voltage fluctuation awareness and topological constraints is proposed.First,to handle missing or discontinuous DESS data in practical engineering scenarios,a power reconstruction method is developed based on nodal power balance and temporal continuity constraints,thereby improving the completeness of key input variables.Second,to capture the influence of DESS-induced local voltage variations on load response,a nodal voltage fluctuation index is constructed to refine voltage features,followed by the fusion of historical load,reconstructed DESS power,and time-aligned voltage characteristics.A hybrid LSTM-PatchTST framework is then established,in which LSTM captures local temporal dynamics and PatchTST characterizes long-term dependencies,while residual correction and ensemble learning further improve model stability.In addition,DESS capacity boundaries and line flow limits are incorporated into the training process as topological constraint loss terms to enhance model adaptability to the physical operating limits of the grid.Simulation results based on half-year operational data from a real ADN demonstrate that the proposed model accurately tracks load trends during active DESS regulation.At a 15-minute resolution,the model achieves a mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 2.73%,corresponding to a reduction of 23.53%and 32.43%compared with two benchmark methods.The results indicate that the synergistic integration of power reconstruction,voltage awareness,and topological constraints significantly enhances the ability of the model to represent source-network-load-storage coupling and provides reliable data support for DESS dispatch and smart grid operation.关键词
分布式储能系统/主动配电网/负荷预测/电压波动感知/储能-负荷耦合/拓扑约束建模Key words
distributed energy storage system/active distribution network/load forecasting/voltage fluctuation awareness/storage-load coupling/topology-constrained modeling分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
杨韵,程永峰,谢祥中,涂炼,廖晔..含分布式储能系统的主动配电网负荷预测模型构建[J].储能科学与技术,2026,15(4):1302-1311,10.基金项目
中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目(036000KK52210065(GDKJXM20210096)). （036000KK52210065(GDKJXM20210096）
