电力系统自动化2026，Vol.50Issue(8)：94-105,12.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20250114001
面向高维平衡域的时序-概率电力电量平衡量化评估方法
Quantitative Evaluation Method for Time-series-Probabilistic Power and Energy Balance Oriented to High-dimensional Balance Region
摘要
Abstract
The large-scale integration of various emerging elements has led to new characteristics of the power and energy balance of new power systems as multi-directional interaction,probabilistic balance,and temporal coupling.How to achieve quantitative analysis of power and energy balance under the new situation has become an important issue.Based on the theory of the time-series-probabilistic power and energy balance,the quantitative evaluation method oriented to high-dimensional balance region is proposed,including new evaluation indicators such as balance probability,unbalanced value,and unbalanced risk.And a robust evaluation model with its algorithm based on the maximum inner approximation of the balance region is also proposed.Since the approximate region is the largest inner filled subset of the real balance region,the reliability and the calculation accuracy of the evaluation results is guaranteed.Due to the avoidance of numerous repeated simulation and complex integral operation,the computational efficiency is improved,and the requirement of practical engineering can be met.Case study results show the validity of the proposed method based on the 2050 planned power system of a region of China.关键词
电力电量平衡/平衡域/时序耦合/不确定性/鲁棒优化Key words
power and energy balance/balance region/time-series coupling/uncertainty/robust optimization引用本文复制引用
林弋莎,鲁宗相,乔颖,李海波..面向高维平衡域的时序-概率电力电量平衡量化评估方法[J].电力系统自动化,2026,50(8):94-105,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(U23B20111). This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U23B20111). （U23B20111）
