当代经济管理2026，Vol.48Issue(5)：72-85,14.DOI:10.13253/j.cnki.ddjjgl.2026.05.007
"十五五"时期中国老龄化程度与中长期人口发展态势研究
Population Aging in China during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period and Medium-to-Long-Term Demographic Trends
摘要
Abstract
The 15th Five-Year Plan period(2026-2030)represents not only a crucial stage in advancing China's socialist modernization but also a pivotal window for addressing the accelerating trend of population aging.Drawing on data from the Seventh National Population Census and incorpora-ting total fertility rate projections generated through a Bayesian hierarchical model,this study employs the cohort-component method and the PADIS-INT system to forecast China's aging level and demographic trajectories during the 15th Five-Year Plan period and up to 2050.The results indicate that China's total population will continue to decline throughout the 15th Five-Year Plan period,accompanied by a deepening degree of population aging.Both the number of newborns and the size of the working-age population are expected to decrease,while the old-age dependency ratio is projected to surpass the child dependency ratio for the first time in history.This study enriches research perspectives and methodological approaches within China's demographic forecasting.It provides new theoretical foundations for optimizing the population structure and addressing the challenges of aging,and of-fers valuable evidence to support policy formulation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.关键词
人口老龄化/人口预测/"十五五"规划/队列要素法Key words
population aging/population projection/the 15th Five-Year Plan/Cohort-Component Method分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
朱紫陌,胡鹏,巴曙松.."十五五"时期中国老龄化程度与中长期人口发展态势研究[J].当代经济管理,2026,48(5):72-85,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"数字化条件下居民金融可得性分化效应及其包容性改进研究"(22BJL042) （22BJL042）
民政部部级项目"我国人口老龄化发展趋势及影响研究"(2024MZJ003). （2024MZJ003）
