干旱区地理2026，Vol.49Issue(4)：727-739,13.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.194
2000-2020年金昌市碳储量时空动态变化及未来多情景预测
Spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon storage and future multi-scenario prediction in Jinchang City from 2000 to 2020
摘要
Abstract
Jinchang,located in the arid region of northwest China,is an important resource-based industrial and mining city with high energy consumption.Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of its carbon re-serves and the path of low-carbon development is crucial for implementing the sustainable development of min-ing cities in the arid region under the background of China's dual carbon goals.Existing studies reported limited analysis on the complex mechanisms of land transfer and spatial differentiation of carbon storage at the mi-croscale in the northwest region of China,as well as scenario predictions.To address this limitation,this study uti-lized the PLUS-InVEST model ensemble method and the land use change data of Jinchang City from 2000 to 2020 to comprehensively examine 10 key driving factors.Accordingly,the natural development,ecological pro-tection,and urban development scenarios were established,and the spatial heterogeneity of land use dynamic ad-justment and carbon storage in Jinchang City from 2020 to 2030 was simulated.The results showed the follow-ing:(1)Unused land,grassland,and cultivated land were the main land uses in Jinchang City from 2000 to 2020.In all,an area of 252.67 km2 was transferred from grassland to unused land,and the transferred to construction land was 82.10 km2 of unused land was transformed to construction land.(2)In 2000,2010,and 2020,the carbon storage in the study area continued to decline to 5.70×107 t,5.52×107 t,and 5.50×107 t,respectively,generating a spatial difference in carbon storage between the southern industrial area and the northeastern ecological area.(3)The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use and carbon storage from 2000 to 2020 showed that the proportion of grassland area transferred to unused land was the largest,resulting in a carbon expenditure of 3.01×106 t,and the conversion of unused land to cultivated land,construction land,and grassland increased the overall carbon storage by 1.25×106 t after conversion.(4)Multi-scenario prediction results revealed that compared with the carbon storage in 2020 that in the natural development,ecological protection,and urban development scenari-os declined by 1.34×105 t,3.13×104 t,and 8.35×105 t,respectively.The research results provide a reference for bal-ancing resource development,land use structure adjustment for ecological protection,soil erosion and its preven-tion,and low-carbon industrial transformation in Jinchang City in the arid region of northwest China.关键词
PLUS-InVEST模型/土地利用变化/碳储量/多情景预测/金昌市Key words
PLUS-InVEST model/land use change/carbon storage/multi-scenario forecasting/Jinchang City引用本文复制引用
陈磊,曹一笑,焦亮..2000-2020年金昌市碳储量时空动态变化及未来多情景预测[J].干旱区地理,2026,49(4):727-739,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42371038) （42371038）
西北师范大学博士科研启动基金(202403101501)资助 （202403101501）
