干旱区地理2026，Vol.49Issue(4)：740-755,16.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.460
宁夏生态系统碳汇时空变化及潜力诊断分区
Spatiotemporal variation and potential zoning diagnosis of ecosystem carbon sinks in Ningxia
摘要
Abstract
Accurate quantification and analysis of terrestrial ecosystem carbon sinks and their spatiotemporal characteristics are fundamental for optimizing regional ecological carbon sink patterns and promoting low-car-bon,sustainable development.Based on long-term remote sensing products,topographic data,and meteorological data,this study constructed an integrated research methodology combining sample plot inventory,remote sensing inversion,machine learning,and linear trend analysis to estimate the long-term carbon storage of terrestrial eco-systems in Ningxia,China.A multiperspective spatiotemporal analysis and diagnostic zoning of ecosystem car-bon sinks were conducted.The results revealed the following:(1)From 2001 to 2024,Ningxia's carbon storage showed a significant upward trend,with annual total carbon storage and average carbon storage increasing at rates of 256.86×104 t·a-1 and 0.49 t·hm-2·a-1,respectively.The total carbon storage increased by 6323.08×104 t,reaching 1.67×108 t in 2024.Guyuan City,with an annual carbon storage increase rate of 0.75 t·hm-2·a-1,emerged as the core carbon sink area in Ningxia.(2)Grassland and farmland were the primary contributors to Ningxia's eco-system carbon sinks from 2001 to 2024,with carbon storage increasing by 4732.87×104 t,accounting for 41.49%and 33.43%of the total contribution,respectively.Through two phases of ecological restoration(2000-2012 and 2012-2024),including the Grain for Green Program,grazing prohibition,and the Three-North Shelterbelt Proj-ect,the conversion among farmland,grassland,and forests increased carbon sinks by 1093.19×104 t,contributing 17.31%to the total increase.Optimizing land-use structure and enhancing vegetation coverage can effectively im-prove ecosystem carbon sink capacity.(3)From 2001 to 2024,78.7%of Ningxia's ecosystem carbon sinks exhib-ited significant increases,with all cities showing increases of over 66.3%,and Guyuan City reaching 96.0%.Ar-eas with decreases were mainly urbanized regions,accounting for only 3.4%.Areas with high variability(Cv≥0.3)covered 41.0%,predominantly distributed in the arid,semi-arid,and desertified regions of central and north-ern Ningxia,driven primarily by precipitation.Under future warm-wet trends,92.75%of Ningxia is projected to sustain increasing carbon storage,indicating its substantial carbon sink potential.The"high-high"clusters identi-fied by Moran's I index were concentrated in southern Ningxia,expanding from 18.7%in 2001 to 25.1%in 2024,marking these areas as high-priority zones for carbon sink enhancement.These findings provide a scientific basis for ecosystem management,land-use optimization,and the pursuit of"dual-carbon"goals in Ningxia.关键词
陆地生态系统/生态碳汇/随机森林模型/空间自相关Key words
terrestrial ecosystem/ecological carbon sink/random forest model/spatial autocorrelation引用本文复制引用
包玉斌,张慧娟,杨雪茹,王耀宗,李樵民,王科,胡胜..宁夏生态系统碳汇时空变化及潜力诊断分区[J].干旱区地理,2026,49(4):740-755,16.基金项目
宁夏回族自治区自然科学基金项目(2024AAC03423) （2024AAC03423）
中央引导地方科技发展专项项目(2025FRF05005)资助 （2025FRF05005）
