干旱区地理2026，Vol.49Issue(4)：778-790,13.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.292
基于熵权-随机森林优化赋权法的新源县地质灾害风险评估
Geological disaster risk assessment of Xinyuan County based on entropy weight-random forest optimization weighting method
摘要
Abstract
Geological disasters frequently occur in the Ili River Basin,and Xinyuan County is among the most di-saster-prone areas.This study focuses on Xinyuan County and establishes a three-dimensional indicator system encompassing the hazard of triggering factors,the susceptibility of disaster-prone environments,and the vulnera-bility of exposed elements.An optimized weighting scheme was developed by integrating the entropy weight method with the Random Forest model,and the comprehensive geological disaster risk of the county was evaluat-ed using the ArcGIS platform.The results indicate that(1)After weight optimization,hazard was primarily gov-erned by hydrodynamic factors,susceptibility was strongly controlled by topographic factors,and vulnerability was mainly determined by transportation networks and population-economic characteristics.The optimized weights yielded higher area under curve values than those obtained using the traditional entropy weight meth-od.(2)The spatial distributions of hazard,susceptibility,and vulnerability differed significantly,corresponding to areas with complex geological conditions,gentle shaded slopes,and population-economic clusters,respec-tively.(3)The overall spatial pattern of geological disaster risk closely corresponded to the distribution of vulner-ability,with high-risk areas concentrated in town centers and along major roads,medium-high-risk areas mainly located where disaster-prone environments overlapped with exposed elements,and low-risk areas distributed in ecologically stable zones or regions lacking significant exposed elements.(4)High-risk zones exhibited strong spatial consistency with historical disaster points and typical exposed elements,thereby confirming the rationality and reliability of the assessment results.The findings reveal the spatial distribution pattern of geological disaster risk in Xinyuan County and provide a scientific basis and theoretical reference for disaster prevention and mitiga-tion.关键词
风险评估/地质灾害/熵权法/随机森林/新源县Key words
risk assessment/geological disasters/entropy weight method/random forest/Xinyuan County引用本文复制引用
刘京会,李鑫旭,袁旭山,李艳敏..基于熵权-随机森林优化赋权法的新源县地质灾害风险评估[J].干旱区地理,2026,49(4):778-790,13.基金项目
第三次新疆综合科学考察(2022xjkk0600)资助 （2022xjkk0600）
