干旱区研究2026，Vol.43Issue(4)：849-861,13.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2026.04.16
天山北坡城市群城市韧性与土地利用效率耦合协调关系的时空演变及预测
Spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of coupling coordination between urban resilience and land use efficiency in the urban agglomerations on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of rapid urban expansion and intertwined ecological and social vulnerabilities in the arid regions of northwestern China,examining the coupling and coordination relationship between urban resil-ience and land use efficiency in the urban agglomerations on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains can of-fer valuable insights into fostering the coordinated enhancement of regional risk resistance and land resource allo-cation.The core contribution of this research is the development of a framework to assess urban resilience and land use efficiency in the urban agglomerations on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.This framework employs the entropy method,super-efficiency SBM model,coupling coordination degree model,and triple expo-nential smoothing method to explore the spatio-temporal evolution and predict trends in coupling coordination re-lationships.The results demonstrate the following:(1)urban resilience levels are generally low but gradually im-proving,with a spatial transition from"core-point high resilience"to"high resilience across the entire region;"(2)land use efficiency has significantly improved,evolving from"fragmented inefficiency"to"corridor-type effi-ciency;"(3)the coupling coordination state between the two systems has developed from near-disruption to pri-mary coordination,and the spatial pattern has evolved from a"center-periphery"structure to a double-peak form;and(4)based on urban resilience foundations,land use patterns,and regional governance,targeted recommenda-tions are proposed to foster the coordinated development of urban resilience and land use efficiency.关键词
城市韧性/土地利用效率/耦合协调度/时空演变/预测/天山北坡城市群Key words
urban resilience/land use efficiency/coupling coordination degree/spatio-temporal evolution/pre-diction/urban agglomerations on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains引用本文复制引用
杨梦舒,马瑛,苏向辉,王保力,王卓然..天山北坡城市群城市韧性与土地利用效率耦合协调关系的时空演变及预测[J].干旱区研究,2026,43(4):849-861,13.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区高校基本科研业务费科研项目(XJEDU2022P037) （XJEDU2022P037）
