广西林业科学2026，Vol.55Issue(1)：30-40,11.DOI:10.19692/j.issn.1006-1126.20260104
基于MaxEnt模型金毛狗(Cibotium barometz)潜在地理分布预测
Prediction of Potential Geographical Distribution of Cibotium barometz Based on MaxEnt Model
摘要
Abstract
Cibotium barometz is endangered protected species,and its habitat is under severely threat current-ly,thus it is necessary to establish global prediction model for its potential geographical distribution to provide references for its resource protection and utilization.Based on data of 365 C.barometz effective distribution re-cords and fifteen environmental variables,C.barometz potential suitable regions were predicted at current and future(2030s,2050s,2070s and 2090s)and main environmental factors affecting its distribution were analyzed by Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model.Results showed that area under curve(AUC)mean of MaxEnt model reached 0.975,indicating high prediction accuracy.Precipitation of the warmest quarter,precipitation of the wettest month,degree,temperature seasonality,mean diurnal range and annual mean temperature were main environmental factors affecting C.barometz distribution with cumulative contribution rate of 94.76%.By 2090s,area of C.barometz total suitable region would decrease 95.86×104 km² under SSP126 scenario,whereas it would increase 71.11×104 and 41.09×104 km² under SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios respectively.C.barometz mainly distributed in range of 90°E-150°E longitude and 10°S-30°N latitude.Under three climate scenarios,C.barometz distribution centers showed trends of moving to regions with lower latitudes from current to 2070s,and showed trends of moving to regions with higher latitudes from 2070s to 2090s.关键词
MaxEnt模型/环境因子/地理分布/金毛狗Key words
MaxEnt model/environmental factor/geographical distribution/Cibotium barometz分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
庞庆玲,李健玲,秦波,梁圣华,邓诗玲,蒋日红..基于MaxEnt模型金毛狗(Cibotium barometz)潜在地理分布预测[J].广西林业科学,2026,55(1):30-40,11.基金项目
广西科技创新平台计划(桂科LT2504240030) （桂科LT2504240030）
广西林业科技推广示范项目(2023LYKJ04) （2023LYKJ04）
广西林科院高层次人才项目(桂林研[RC]2302) （桂林研[RC]2302）
