河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）2026，Vol.28Issue(2)：81-93,13.DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1671-4970.2026.02.008
延迟退休对养老保险基金的调节效应:基于缴费与给付双重视角的精算模拟
The Regulatory Effect of Delayed Retirement on Pension Insurance Funds:An Actuarial Simulation Based on the Dual Perspectives of Payment and Benefit
摘要
Abstract
The positive impact of delayed retirement policies on the financial balance of pension insurance has been confirmed by both academic research and the practices of countries.Given China's large population base and the rapid population aging,it is imperative to evaluate the long-term effects of specific delayed retirement schemes and to explore supporting policies following their implementation.To this end,this study constructs a static actuarial model to approximately identify the causal effects of delayed retirement policies.The sample consists of urban male employees born between 1965 and 1984.By fixing average life expectancy,standardizing monthly contribution levels and benefit payments,and controlling for other confounding factors,this study conducts actuarial simulations of pension fund revenues and expenditures under three scenarios:the pre-reform baseline,conventional delayed retirement,and unconventional(extended)delayed retirement,aiming to isolate the pure time effect generated by adjustments in retirement age.Under the static assumptions,this study finds that delayed retirement policies effectively improve the financial status of pension funds by extending contribution periods and shortening the duration of benefit receipt.Under the conventional delayed retirement scenario,total pension expenditures decrease by CNY 84.965 billion compared to the pre-reform baseline,representing a reduction of 10.5%,while the net fund balance improves by CNY 135.665 billion.Under the unconventional delayed retirement scenario,total pension expenditures further decrease by CNY 254.035 billion,with a reduction of 31.3%,and the net fund balance improvement rises to CNY 387.682 billion.The results confirm that delayed retirement,as a key policy adjustment tool,plays a significant role in maintaining the actuarial balance of pension funds.However,the effectiveness of such policies depends not only on their financial benefits but also on the establishment of a favorable social environment.By improving family support systems tailored to different age groups,fostering coordinated intergenerational employment mechanisms,and ensuring comprehensive labor and social security rights and interests,it is essential to enhance public acceptance of the policy and individuals'willingness to respond positively,thereby achieving a harmonious alignment between institutional objectives and overall social welfare.关键词
延迟退休/养老保险/基金可持续性/就业/家庭照护/人工智能Key words
delayed retirement/pension insurance/fund sustainability/employment/family care/Artificial Intelligence引用本文复制引用
郭磊,赵慧峰,王辰..延迟退休对养老保险基金的调节效应:基于缴费与给付双重视角的精算模拟[J].河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）,2026,28(2):81-93,13.基金项目
北京市教育科学"十四五"规划重点项目(BAFA25055) （BAFA25055）
