华南理工大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.54Issue(4)：170-179,10.DOI:10.12141/j.issn.1000-565X.250239
考虑不可观测异质性的营运车辆事故严重程度建模
Severity Modeling for Operational Vehicle Accidents Considering Unobserved Heterogeneity
摘要
Abstract
With the rapid development of the road transport industry,the number of accidents involving operational vehicles is continuously increasing.Especially,operational vehicles,due to their unique operational characteristics,face more complex traffic environments and risks.This study analyzes the impact of unobserved heterogeneity on the severity of operational vehicle accidents.Based on traffic accident data of operational buses and trucks in China,relevant variables are selected from such four aspects as driver behavior,vehicle type,road characteristics and environmental conditions,and a random parameter Logit model is constructed.By introducing random parameters,the model can effectively capture the heterogeneity and uncertainty between individuals,thus improving its explanatory power and predictive performance.The SHAP method is further applied to analyze the direction,importance,and non-linear interactions between variables.The results show that,for operational buses,complex road shapes and vehicle types significantly increase the severity of accidents,especially the interaction effect between complex road conditions and improper operations,which notably raises the accident severity.For operational trucks,the interaction effect between hazardous material transport vehicles and complex road conditions is stronger,and speeding behavior significantly increases the probability of major accidents.The SHAP analysis quantifies the contribution of 10 multidimensional factors to accident severity,revealing that bus accidents are mainly influenced by road environment factors,while truck accidents are more significantly related to vehicle attributes.This further quantifies the differing impacts of human factors and environmental factors on the severity of accidents.关键词
营运车辆/交通安全/致因分析/不可观测异质性/随机参数Logit模型/SHAP可解释性分析Key words
operational vehicle/transportation safety/causality analysis/unobserved heterogeneity/random parameter Logit model/SHAP interpretability analysis分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
刘正华,郭沛鑫,汪守东,张越,董春娇,熊志华..考虑不可观测异质性的营运车辆事故严重程度建模[J].华南理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,54(4):170-179,10.基金项目
交通安全应急技术实验室开放课题((2024)JH-F035) （(2024）
