华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.60Issue(2)：208-219,12.DOI:10.19603/j.cnki.1000-1190.2026.02.005
基于CMIP6集合降尺度的鄱阳湖流域降水集中度预估
Precipitation concentration projection over the Poyang Lake Basin based on downscaled CMIP6 ensemble
摘要
Abstract
We projected the variation of precipitation in the Poyang Lake watershed using methods of spatial interpolation and bias correction with data from 20 CMIP6 models under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.The results showed that,under both scenarios,heavy rain frequency and annual maximum daily precipitation show a significant increasing trend,and the annual total and light rain frequency decreased significantly,which indicated that the temporal distribution of precipitation in the basin will be more concentrated in the future.By quantitatively analyzing the change of precipitation time concentration using Gini coefficient method,which further showed that the precipitation concentration increased significantly under the background of climate warming,and the increase was even greater under the high emission scenario.Analysis of the precipitation response to temperature change found that climate warming can significantly explain the change of precipitation(p＜0.1)by-0.47％·K-1,-1.71％·K-1,2.73％·K-1,7.75％·K-1,and 0.39％·K-1 for annual precipitation frequency,light rain frequency,heavy rain frequency,annual maximum daily precipitation and precipitation concentration,respectively.The research results can provide a theoretical basis for water resources management planning and flood/drought control in the basin.关键词
CMIP6/降水集中度预估/鄱阳湖流域/偏差校正Key words
CMIP6/precipitation concentration projection/Poyang Lake Watershed/bias correction分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张玲,涂振发,徐梦实,肖南南,罗文祺,王丹丹,吴金汝,梁栋,陆建忠,陈晓玲..基于CMIP6集合降尺度的鄱阳湖流域降水集中度预估[J].华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,60(2):208-219,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42171423) （42171423）
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42205057,42301452) （42205057,42301452）
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2021M702992). （2021M702992）
