经济与管理研究2026，Vol.47Issue(4)：3-16,14.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2026.04.001
激励与均衡:税收分享对城乡收入差距的非线性效应
Incentive and Equilibrium:Nonlinear Effects of Tax Sharing on Urban-Rural Income Gap
摘要
Abstract
Against the background of promoting common prosperity and integrated development of urban and rural areas,optimizing the intergovernmental tax sharing mechanism has become a key policy lever for regulating the income distribution pattern.This paper develops a theoretical model to systematically elaborate on the intrinsic connection between tax sharing and the urban-rural income gap,and conducts an empirical study based on the panel data from cities at and above the prefecture level from 2010 to 2022. The findings show that there is a U-shaped nonlinear relationship between tax sharing and the urban-rural income gap,with an optimal threshold.On the left side of this threshold,the marginal returns brought by tax sharing are greater than the marginal costs,which helps to narrow the urban-rural income gap.On the right side,however,the agglomeration diseconomies caused by excessive population concentration dominate,leading to the marginal costs exceeding the marginal returns,which is not conducive to narrowing the gap.At the threshold point,the system reaches a state of equilibrium. From a practical perspective,about 25.75%of sample cities have a tax-sharing ratio below this threshold,indicating that these cities are still at a stage where they can promote coordinated urban-rural development by appropriately increasing their tax-sharing ratios.On the contrary,74.25%of cities have exceeded this threshold,and the marginal returns of their tax sharing have tended to weaken,entering a stage in which the agglomeration diseconomy effect begins to appear and may dominate the urban-rural income gap. To enhance the robustness of the conclusions,this paper adopts the instrumental variable method to alleviate potential endogeneity bias,and conducts various robustness tests,including replacing the measurement method of the explained variable,controlling for the impact of transfer payment intensity,excluding samples from autonomous regions,clustering standard errors at the provincial level,and re-estimating by selecting urban samples through random sampling.The results confirm the robustness of the core conclusions. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates this effect exhibits regional variation.In regions with higher levels of human capital and marketization,the income-regulating effect of tax sharing is more pronounced.This finding highlights the dependence of the income-regulating effect of tax sharing on regional endowment,revealing the boundary conditions for policy effectiveness. This paper provides empirical evidence for promoting the balanced development of urban and rural areas as follows.In the process of advancing common prosperity,appropriately adjusting local tax sharing policies can effectively promote the convergence of the urban-rural income gap.At the same time,policy adjustments should align with regional development,optimizing tax sharing mechanisms according to local conditions to facilitate the sustained narrowing of the urban-rural income gap.关键词
共同富裕/税收分享/城乡收入差距/人力资本/市场化Key words
common prosperity/tax sharing/urban-rural income gap/human capital/marketization level分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
康明,踪家峰..激励与均衡:税收分享对城乡收入差距的非线性效应[J].经济与管理研究,2026,47(4):3-16,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目"人工智能促进区域经济协调发展的机制研究"(22BJL062) （22BJL062）
