江西农业学报2026，Vol.38Issue(4)：91-98,8.DOI:10.19386/j.cnki.jxnyxb.2026.04.012
忻州市潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征及其影响因子分析
Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Potential Evapotranspiration in Xinzhou
摘要
Abstract
Based on daily meteorological data from 14 county-level stations across Xinzhou City during 1990～2024,this study systematically investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of potential evapotranspiration(ET0)and its dominant meteorological drivers using the Penman-Monteith(P-M)model,principal component analysis,sensitivity analysis and contribution rate analysis.The results show that the average annual ET0 in Xinzhou City is 1029.1 mm,exhibiting a significant increasing trend over the past 35 years at a linear rate of 27.02 mm/10 a.Spatially,ET0 displays a"high in the northwest,low in the southeast"pattern.Intra-annually,ET0 follows a unimodal distribution,peaking in June(152.5 mm)and reaching its minimum in December(23.9 mm).Mann-Kendall test indicates a significant abrupt change in ET0 in 2016,with post-change values increasing by 67 mm compared to the pre-change period.The contribution rates of dominant meteorological factors are ranked as wind speed(8.17%)＞minimum temperature(5.67%)＞relative humidity(4.05%)＞maximum temperature(1.93%).Although ET0 is most sensitive to relative humidity,it is not among the top contributors.Regionally,ET0 in western counties is primarily controlled by maximum temperature,eastern areas are dominated by wind speed,and central regions are mainly influenced by humidity.The key mechanism underlying the"evaporation paradox"observed in Ningwu is the substantial decline in wind speed(-20.95%).This study represents the comprehensive elucidation of the multi-factor synergistic mechanisms governing ET0 in Xinzhou City,highlighting the predominant role of wind speed and the region-specific nature of the evaporation paradox.These findings hold significant implications for drought-tolerant coarse grain cultivation,regional water resource management,and climate change adaptation strategies in Xinzhou.关键词
潜在蒸散量/时空分异/影响因素/忻州市Key words
Potential evapotranspiration/Spatiotemporal variation/Influencing factors/Xinzhou City分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
秦小康,李睿,温天亮,李欣,王力..忻州市潜在蒸散量的时空变化特征及其影响因子分析[J].江西农业学报,2026,38(4):91-98,8.基金项目
山西省气象局面上项目"气候变暖背景下忻州市潜在蒸散量和气象干旱的时空分异"(SXKMSQH20266438). （SXKMSQH20266438）
