建筑钢结构进展2026，Vol.28Issue(4)：30-37,8.DOI:10.13969/j.jzgjgjz.20240925001
风压系数特性对风荷载超越概率和结构失效概率的影响
Effects of Wind Pressure Coefficient Characteristics on Wind Load Exceedance Probability and Failure Probability of Structure
摘要
Abstract
The influence of sample size,parameter estimation methods,probability distribution types on exceedance probability of design wind load,and structural failure probability is not yet clear.For evaluating the effects of wind pressure coefficient characteristics on the exceedance probability and structural failure probability,the Monte Carlo method and reliability calibration method are used to estimate these probabilities.The results indicate that low return period design wind loads are less sensitive to the sample size of wind pressure coefficients compared to those with high return periods.Both the mean and standard deviation of the exceedance probability decrease gradually as the sample size increases.During the low return period,the mean and standard deviation of the design wind load exceedance probability at two special percentile values of 57%and 78%are greater than those at random percentile values.For small samples,it is recommended to use the 78%percentile value of the wind pressure coefficient to calculate the design wind load.When the sample size is sufficient,fitting the wind pressure coefficient based on the Gumbel distribution is safer for structural design.Applying the L-moment method to estimate the probability distribution parameters of wind pressure coefficients has a rapid convergence ability for both Gumbel and GEV distributions in small sample sizes.Compared with wind speed,the sample size of wind pressure coefficient has a smaller impact on wind load exceedance probability.It is recommended that the sample size for wind tunnel test and related extreme value statistical wind pressure coefficient should not be less than 10.Under the same sample size,the larger the wind-to-dead load ratio,the higher the mean and standard deviation of structural failure probability,making the structure more dangerous.Under a specific wind-to-dead load ratio,the maximum likelihood estimation method is used,and the sample size greater than 10 has little impact on the estimation of structural failure probability and reliability.The research results can provide a reference for wind pressure coefficient sampling,probability statistical fitting,and reliability calibration of design wind load.关键词
风压系数/概率分布/样本量/风荷载/超越概率/结构失效概率/可靠度Key words
wind pressure coefficient/probability distribution/sample size/wind load/exceedance probability/structural failure probability/reliability分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李寿科,苏培林,李友新,杨泽佳,邓慧,陈宁,刘敏..风压系数特性对风荷载超越概率和结构失效概率的影响[J].建筑钢结构进展,2026,28(4):30-37,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(52378510) （52378510）
