科技情报研究2026，Vol.8Issue(2)：14-23,10.DOI:10.19809/j.cnki.kjqbyj.2026.02.002
科技安全风险弱信号感知研究
Research on Weak Signal Perception of Sci-Tech Security Risks
摘要
Abstract
[Purpose/significance]As a supplement to traditional strategic intelligence analysis methods,the perception of weak signals of sci-tech security risks plays a crucial role in the monitoring and early warning of sci-tech security.It can identify early ambiguous infor-mation that foreshadows major future changes,thus seizing the initiative for strategic decision-making in the context of the global sci-tech competition landscape.[Method/process]Taking the weak signals of sci-tech security risks as the research object,this paper system-atically defines the conceptual connotation of weak signals and their relationships with sci-tech security risks and intelligence analysis from the perspective of information science,and emphasizes that weak signals are essentially early information clues pointing to the evolu-tion direction of risks,rather than the results of risk judgment themselves.On this basis,it analyzes the typical types of sci-tech security risks that weak signals may indicate,constructs an intelligence perception process of weak signals for sci-tech security scenarios,and pro-poses an evaluation framework integrating the weak signal detection model and the dynamic relative expectation mechanism to support the continuous tracking of changes in the importance of weak signals.Furthermore,combined with different application scenarios,it dis-cusses the application modes and analytical boundaries of the weak signal perception methods.[Result/conclusion]Despite certain limita-tions of this research,the findings help to improve the proactivity and systematicness of sci-tech security risk identification,and provide intelligence support for sci-tech security decision-making.关键词
科技安全风险/弱信号/感知路径/多源数据融合/弱信号探测模型/埃洛评分机制(ELO)/弱信号动态评估框架Key words
technological security risk/weak signals/perception paths/multi-source data fusion/weak signal detection model/ELO rating system/dynamic evaluation framework of weak signal分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
李辉,张晓静,谭晓..科技安全风险弱信号感知研究[J].科技情报研究,2026,8(2):14-23,10.基金项目
北京市习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心重点项目"推进北京市科技安全治理体系现代化研究"(编号:23LLGLB083) （编号:23LLGLB083）
