林业经济2025，Vol.47Issue(11)：45-60,16.
全球林产品价值网络的演化特征与韧性分析
Evolutionary characteristics and resilience analysis of global forest product value network
摘要
Abstract
Under the background of globalization and climate change,the cross border value flows of forest products have become increasingly complex.Traditional trade network studies cannot fully reveal the real positions of countries in value creation and transmission.This paper builds the global forest products value network using value added data from the OECD TiVA database for 1999-2019.Network indicators are measured at the macro,meso and micro levels,and the entropy method is applied to identify key countries.In addition,dynamic simulations are used to compare the network's absorption,buffering and recovery capacities under random and targeted attacks,and to assess the impact of removing key countries.The main findings are as follows:(1)The global forest products value network is shifting from a center-periphery structure to a multipolar one,with closer connections and rising efficiency.(2)China,Germany and the United States remain in central positions.China serves as both a creator of value and a bridging country,Germany is prominent in value absorption and integration,while the United States is gradually evolving into a final consumer market.Europe and North America maintain overall advantages,but countries such as Finland and the United Kingdom have lost ground due to delayed transitions or political and economic turbulence.(3)Emerging nodes such as Slovakia,Poland and India have rapidly gained importance.(4)Resilience analysis indicates that the network adapts well to random shocks but is vulnerable to targeted attacks.The absence of key countries produces significant impacts,while the marginal role of smaller countries is becoming more influential.Policy implications:China and relevant countries should shift from a purely resource and export oriented strategy toward value-chain upgrading combined with resilience oriented governance,promoting green deep processing,regional cooperation and multi-path connectivity to enhance the resilience and stability of the global forest products value network.关键词
林产品/价值网络/网络韧性/中断模拟/复杂网络分析Key words
forest products/value network/network resilience/disruption simulation/complex network analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
冯子墨,杨晨曦,邓晶,刘诚..全球林产品价值网络的演化特征与韧性分析[J].林业经济,2025,47(11):45-60,16.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究项目"'双碳'目标下气候政策不确定性对能源企业尾部风险溢出的影响机制研究"(23YJA790014&22YJA790015). （23YJA790014&22YJA790015）
