林业科学2026，Vol.62Issue(5)：189-199,11.DOI:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20250381
气候政策不确定性对林业高质量发展的影响
Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on the High-Quality Development of Forestry
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to investigate the correlation between climate policy uncertainty and the high-quality development of forestry,deeply understand the influence mechanism,quantitatively assess the risks and opportunities brought by climate policy uncertainty to the high-quality development of forestry,and explore effective ways for high-quality development of forestry.[Method]The panel data from 31 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities)in China from 2012 to 2022 was used to construct a comprehensive evaluation index system for the high-quality development of forestry.The entropy method was used to measure the level of high-quality development of forestry in 31 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities).The two-way fixed effect model and the mediation effect model were used to empirically analyze the causal relationship and mechanism between climate policy uncertainty and the high-quality development of forestry.[Result]1)Climate policy uncertainty had a significant negative impact on the level of high-quality development of forestry,and this result remained valid after a series of robustness tests.2)Climate policy uncertainty inhibited the high-quality development of forestry by reducing the input of scientific and technological human resources in the forestry sector.3)The negative impact of climate policy uncertainty on high-quality forestry development was more pronounced in eastern regions,areas with scarce forest resources,and regions dominated by collective forests.4)The negative impact of climate policy uncertainty on the high-quality development of forestry only occurred when the climate policy uncertainty index exceeded the threshold value.[conclusion]Climate policy uncertainty inhibits the level of high-quality development of forestry by reducing the input of scientific and technological human resources in the forestry sector,and its impact is heterogeneous.To address this,it is necessary to moderately enhance the consistency and continuity of different climate policies,strengthen information communication before policy introduction and information disclosure during the implementation process,and ensure that forestry-related departments can timely,comprehensively,and accurately understand the specific content of climate policies,thereby using market and technological means to cope with the negative impacts brought by climate policy uncertainty through multi-channels.关键词
气候变化/气候政策不确定性/林业高质量发展/林业科技人力资源Key words
climate change/climate policy uncertainty/high-quality development of forestry/scientific and technological human resources in forestry分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张少鹏,任阳阳,姜巧悦,贯君,朱洪革..气候政策不确定性对林业高质量发展的影响[J].林业科学,2026,62(5):189-199,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFE0112803) （2023YFE0112803）
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目青年项目(24GLC022) （24GLC022）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2572024DZ42) （2572024DZ42）
黑龙江省博士后面上项目(LBH-Z24067). （LBH-Z24067）
