内蒙古电力技术2026，Vol.44Issue(2)：9-18,10.DOI:10.19929/j.cnki.nmgdljs.2026.0016
基于遗传算法优化的BP神经网络方法在光伏发电功率预测中的应用
Application of BP Neural Network Based on Genetic Algorithm Optimization in Photovoltaic Power Prediction
摘要
Abstract
In order to solve the issue of the fluctuation and intermittence of output performance of photovoltaic power station under the influence of climatic conditions,which seriously affect the stable output of electric energy and the safe operation of power station,firstly,a photovoltaic power station in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is taken as the research object,and the operating data such as total solar irradiance,ambient temperature,ambient humidity,wind speed,wind direction and component inclination angle are collected.Secondly,the back propagation(BP)neural network is improved,and the genetic algorithm(GA)is introduced to construct the improved-back propagation(Imp-BP)and GA-Imp-BP neural network prediction models respectively.Finally,Imp-BP and GA-Imp-BP neural networks are trained and the output power prediction effects are compared.The results show that compared with the traditional BP neural network,Imp-BP and GA-Imp-BP neural networks have significant advantages.The mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)is calculated by using the actual power and the installed capacity as the denominator,respectively.The MAPE values of GA-Imp-BP neural network are 10.96%and 7.17%respectively,and the MAPE values of Imp-BP neural network are 14.21%and 7.52%respectively,which are lower than those of traditional BP neural network.The prediction accuracy of GA-Imp-BP neural network is higher in four seasons(especially in spring and autumn),and the prediction errors in summer and winter are significantly lower than that of traditional BP and Imp-BP neural network.关键词
光伏电站/输出功率预测/气候条件/改进反向传播神经网络/遗传算法Key words
photovoltaic power station/output power prediction/climatic conditions/improved-back propagation(Imp-BP)neural network/genetic algorithm(GA)分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
郭文强,闫素英,郭枭,秦波,武治星,赵剑,杨龙,王晓飞,王雯怡,孙凌峰,高治强..基于遗传算法优化的BP神经网络方法在光伏发电功率预测中的应用[J].内蒙古电力技术,2026,44(2):9-18,10.基金项目
内蒙古自治区2025年重点研发和成果转化计划(科技支撑东北振兴)项目"新能源基地源网协调优化调度与运营能力提升关键技术研发"(2025YFDZ0014) （科技支撑东北振兴）
校企合作项目"光储电站功率预测偏差引起的电量损失分析"(HX2025B50400004) （HX2025B50400004）
甘肃省太阳能发电系统重点实验室开放基金资助项目"河西地区光伏板面沙尘沉积动态规律及预测"(2024SPKL03) （2024SPKL03）
