南水北调与水利科技（中英文）2026，Vol.24Issue(2)：456-465,10.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2026.0044
南水北调中线京石段冰期输水方案评价
Evaluation of ice age water transfer schemes in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project from Beijing to Shijiazhuang
摘要
Abstract
One of the key technical and operational challenges during winter is managing the ice regime in the Beijing-Shijiazhuang section of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project.Conditions such as open water,drifting ice,partial ice cover,and stable full ice cover represent various hydrological phases in this complex process,involving tightly coupled hydraulic,thermal,and ice dynamic interactions.Each phase presents specific operational risks and management challenges.During prolonged cold spells,continuous heat exchange between water and the atmosphere causes water to progressively supercool,leading to frazil ice nucleation and eventual surface ice formation.These ice formations reduce the effective cross-sectional flow area,increase hydraulic resistance,raise upstream water levels,and significantly heighten the risk of ice jams and ice dams.Ice-related phenomena not only disrupt scheduled water delivery and decrease operational efficiency but also pose serious structural safety threats to canal embankments and control structures.Effectively managing ice-affected water conveyance has become increasingly critical for the project's reliable year-round operation,especially as climate change leads to more frequent and severe cold events.This situation underscores the urgent need for comprehensive ice-risk assessment methods and resilient winter operation strategies capable of fulfilling delivery goals while protecting infrastructure. This study presents a segmented weighting framework that explicitly incorporates correlated indicators to address the ongoing problem of evaluating winter conveyance schemes,where fully independent evaluation indicators are theoretically required but frequently unattainable due to limited monitoring data.The procedure begins with grouping indicators into clusters via correlation analysis to mitigate multicollinearity,within each cluster,weights are redistributed from a representative indicator.A combined subjective-objective weighting scheme is then implemented,incorporating the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)for expert-driven judgment and the entropy weight method for data-driven weight assignment.To improve the credibility of the evaluation results,a multi-method approach is adopted,combining five different techniques:vlsekriterijumska optimizacija I kompromisno resenje(VIKOR),Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS),rank sum ratio(RSR),fuzzy optimization,and the comprehensive index method.This ensemble reduces the bias inherent in any single model and provides a more stable,interpretable ranking.Using actual ice-period conveyance records from the Beijing-Shijiazhuang section between 2011 and 2016,an evaluation index system was developed and implemented.The analysis showed that the 2015-2016 operational scheme consistently received the highest ranking across all five evaluation methods.Notably,this scheme achieved an average flow rate of 50 m3/s while causing minimal ice-related disruptions,demonstrating that high-volume conveyance under freezing conditions is technically feasible.Throughout the ice period,the system maintained hydraulic stability and control,showing that proper scheduling and hydraulic management can effectively handle ice risks.These findings confirm both the operational strategy used that year and the effectiveness of the proposed evaluation framework in identifying reliable conveyance plans. The 2015-2016 ice conveyance scheme,which included high flow rates,long-distance delivery,and multiple end-users,proved capable of maintaining stable operations under severe ice conditions.It demonstrated that scientifically guided scheduling and proactive risk management can ensure safe winter water transfer.The proposed segmented weighting method effectively addresses the issue of redundant weights caused by correlated indicators,preserving interpretability while maximizing information extraction from limited datasets.This approach is especially suited to managing non-independent indicators commonly used in engineering practice.Additionally,integrating multiple decision-making techniques significantly enhances the reliability and robustness of scheme rankings,reducing uncertainty associated with single-method evaluations and providing a means to cross-validate results from various techniques.This methodology offers a new systematic approach for performance assessment under data-scarce conditions.It is highly relevant to the winter operation of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project and other similar long-distance open-channel water transfer systems.In an era of increasing climate variability,this research provides the theoretical foundation,methodological tools,and practical example necessary to improve ice disaster resilience and operational safety in major water infrastructure projects.关键词
南水北调中线/冰期输水/分段指标赋权/主客观综合赋权法/多元方法评价Key words
Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project/ice-period water conveyance/weighted indicator in stage/subjective-objective comprehensive weighting method/multi-method evaluation分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
赵梦龙,李坤,李荣容,罗秋实,王冰洁,李浩飞,贾皓..南水北调中线京石段冰期输水方案评价[J].南水北调与水利科技（中英文）,2026,24(2):456-465,10.基金项目
十四五国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFC3202504 （）
2023YFC3206305) （）
中国博士后科学基金项目(2024M751072) （2024M751072）
