农业科学研究2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：13-19,30,8.DOI:10.13907/j.cnki.nykxyj.2026.01.002
不同种植年限枸杞种植系统温室气体通量的变化特征与预测
Patterns and prediction of greenhouse gas fluxes in wolfberry cultivation systems across cultivation ages
摘要
Abstract
To investigate and predict how greenhouse gas emissions in arid zone agricultural ecosystems respond to land use change,this study examined wolfberry fields in Zhongning County,Ningxia,spanning four planting ages(0,1,5,and 10 years).it measured soil physicochemical properties and the fluxes of CO₂,N₂O,and CH₄,and developed autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)models to predict their temporal dynamics.CO₂ and N₂O fluxes increased significantly with planting age,whereas CH ₄ flux showed no significant change.Fluxes were higher in summer than in winter,indicating pronounced seasonal differences.Soil water content and pH were identified as key controls on greenhouse gas emissions.The ARIMA models performed well overall,with the highest predictive accuracy for CH ₄ flux.Forecasts suggest that,over the near term,greenhouse gas fluxes will remain relatively stable or exhibit slight increases.This study elucidated the spatiotemporal patterns and dominant controls of greenhouse gas emissions in wolfberry cultivation systems and provides a forecasting tool to support regional low-carbon agricultural management.关键词
枸杞地/干旱地区/温室气体/种植时间/ARIMA模型Key words
wolfberry fields/arid region/greenhouse gas/planting time/ARIMA model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘亚俊杰,王世全,周美萍,孟晨,杨帆..不同种植年限枸杞种植系统温室气体通量的变化特征与预测[J].农业科学研究,2026,47(1):13-19,30,8.基金项目
宁夏自然科学基金项目(2023AAC03052) （2023AAC03052）
