农业科学研究2026，Vol.47Issue(1)：57-63,7.DOI:10.13907/j.cnki.nykxyj.2026.01.007
基于FLUS和InVEST模型的无锡市碳储量模拟预测
Simulation and prediction of carbon stock in Wuxi City based on FLUS and InVEST models
吴朝明 1朱骊 1杨锐 1戈禹1
作者信息
- 1. 江苏省水文水资源勘测局无锡分局,江苏 无锡 214000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
To analyze the historical spatiotemporal dynamics of land use in Wuxi City and assess their impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks,this study used land-use data for 2000-2020 and applied the FLUS model to simulate land use patterns in 2030 under three scenarios:natural development,economic development,and ecological protection.Coupling these simulations with the InVEST model,this study employed its carbon stock module to quantify historical and projected carbon stocks and to inform rational land-use transitions.The results indicate that cropland is the dominant land use type in Wuxi City.Built-up land has expanded year by year and,together with forest land,constitutes the second most important land use.Historically,the principal land-use transition was from cropland to built-up land.Cropland contributed the most to total carbon stock,followed by forest land;however,since 2010,the contribution rate of built-up land has exceeded that of forest land,resulting in a year-on-year decline in the city's total carbon stock.Relative to 2020,total carbon stock in 2030 is projected to decrease by 55.2×104 t and 78.34×104 t under the natural development and economic development scenarios,respectively,whereas it is projected to increase by 0.58×104 t under the ecological protection scenario.关键词
土地利用/FLUS模型/InVEST模型/碳储量Key words
land use/FLUS model/InVEST model/carbon stock分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
吴朝明,朱骊,杨锐,戈禹..基于FLUS和InVEST模型的无锡市碳储量模拟预测[J].农业科学研究,2026,47(1):57-63,7.
