四川农业大学学报2026，Vol.44Issue(2)：428-437,10.DOI:10.16036/j.issn.1000-2650.202512720
基于MaxEnt模型的甘孜州高原鼠兔种群空间分布及防控对策
Spatial Distribution and Control Strategies of Plateau Pikas in Ganzi Prefecture Based on the MaxEnt Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aimed to clarify the spatial distribution of plateau pika(Ochotona cur-zoniae)in Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Sichuan Province,and identify the key environmental factors driving its distribution,so as to provide a scientific basis for regional grassland ecological conser-vation and rodent pest management.[Method]A total of 1,197 valid occurrence records of plateau pika were obtained via field surveys.Combined with climatic and topographic variables,the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential suitable distribution areas of plateau pika in the study region.[Result]The MaxEnt model achieved high prediction accuracy,with an AUC value of 0.925.Annual temperature range was identified as the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of plateau pika in Ganzi Prefecture,with a percent contribution of 68.1%.The total suitable habitat area accounted for 20.9%of the total land area of the prefecture,among which highly,moderately,and lowly suitable habi-tats covered 5.63×105 hm2,8.93×105 hm2 and 1.45×106 hm2,respectively.The plateau pika exhibited an aggregated spatial distribution,and an obvious"suitability without occurrence"pattern was detected between the predicted suitable habitats and actual infestation areas.[Conclusion]Accordingly,future rodent control should prioritize degraded grasslands within highly and moderately suitable habitats,estab-lish a hierarchical monitoring and early-warning system,and carry out precise prevention and control measures.关键词
高原鼠兔/青藏高原/最大熵模型/物种分布模型/鼠害管理Key words
plateau pika/Qinghai-Tibet Plateau/MaxEnt model/species distribution model/rodent control分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
王康,周俗,刘布白丹学扎,张双梅,王钰,熊韫琦,李小燕,拉毛草,杨廷勇,贾玉珍..基于MaxEnt模型的甘孜州高原鼠兔种群空间分布及防控对策[J].四川农业大学学报,2026,44(2):428-437,10.基金项目
甘孜县草原综合示范区建设项目(N5133282024000037) （N5133282024000037）
国家现代农业产业技术体系(sccxtd-2025-16). （sccxtd-2025-16）
