综合智慧能源2026，Vol.48Issue(4)：27-34,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2097-0706.2026.04.004
华北和东北农宅供暖季实时供热量辨识方法及应用
Real-time heat supply identification method and application for rural residences in North and Northeast China during heating season
摘要
Abstract
Heating systems in rural residences in cold and extremely cold regions face both economic and environmental challenges.A real-time heat supply identification model for rural residences based on the principle of conservation of energy was proposed.The model comprehensively considered factors such as the instantaneous heat gain and heat transfer of the building envelope,heat variation of indoor air,and air infiltration load.The model was applied to three rural residences in North China and Northeast China,with physical parameters calibrated using measured data from non-heating seasons.After calibration,the model achieved prediction accuracy for instantaneous indoor temperature with a root mean square error,mean bias error,and range normalized root mean square error of below 6.45％,3.31％,and 8.72％,respectively.The calibrated model was used for data analysis of rural residences during heating season.The results showed that the peak heat supply for rural residences in Northeast China differed significantly from that in North China,with a maximum difference of 72.2 W/m².Additionally,a reduction of 1℃in indoor temperature decreased the heat supply by 12.45％for rural residences in Northeast China and by an average of 12.85％in North China.The findings indicate that predicting real-time heat supply under different indoor temperatures is of great significance for effective heating regulation in rural residences.关键词
实时供热量/辨识模型/热负荷/农宅/寒冷及严寒地区Key words
real-time heat supply/identification model/heating load/rural residence/cold and extremely cold regions分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
陈玥,田绅,战斌飞,石晓冬,徐伟宸,胡开永..华北和东北农宅供暖季实时供热量辨识方法及应用[J].综合智慧能源,2026,48(4):27-34,8.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发项目(2023B02029-1) （2023B02029-1）
全国大学生创新创业计划项目(202410069271)Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Key Research and Development Project(2023B02029-1) （202410069271）
National College Students'Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Project(202410069271) （202410069271）
