水力发电2026，Vol.52Issue(5)：48-55,63,9.
变化环境下谢邦非河流域水文情势演变规律及驱动机理分析
Evolution Law and Driving Mechanism of Hydrological Situation in Xe Bangfai River Basin under Changing Environment
摘要
Abstract
To reveal the evolvement law and driving mechanism of runoff in Xe Bangfai River Basin,Laos,the hydrometeorological and land use data from 1988 to 2017 are analyzed,and the Mann-Kendall test,Pettitt mutation analysis and moving average difference method are used to conduct trend and mutation analysis of the sequence.The contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff variation are quantitatively analyzed using the SWAT hydrological simulation method,and the intrinsic driving mechanisms of the two are analyzed by using mathematical statistics and the land use transfer matrix.Analysis indicates that:(a)a declining trend in precipitation,which is not statistically significant,while temperature and runoff increase significantly;(b)the years of runoff mutation are 2005 and 2010;(c)human activities are primarily attributable to this phenomenon,accounting for 165.32%and 119.49%in Change Phase I and Change Phase II,respectively,while the contribution rates of climate change are-65.32%and-19.49%,respectively;and(d)the transformation of the underlying surface,driven by forest loss and the expansion of agricultural and residential areas,and the operation of the Nam Theun II Hydropower Station on Nam Theun River are the key factors leading to the increase in runoff in the basin.关键词
径流归因/SWAT模型/突变分析/气候变化/人类活动/谢邦非河流域Key words
runoff attribution/SWAT model/mutation analysis/climate change/human activities/Xe Bangfai River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
朱正贤,瞿思敏,陈启慧,石朋,李琼芳..变化环境下谢邦非河流域水文情势演变规律及驱动机理分析[J].水力发电,2026,52(5):48-55,63,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3211400) （2024YFC3211400）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52179011) （52179011）
江苏省科技计划专项资金(国际科技合作/港澳台科技合作计划)(BZ2024034) （国际科技合作/港澳台科技合作计划）
中央高校基本科研业务费项目(B250202001) （B250202001）
