水力发电学报2026，Vol.45Issue(4)：86-103,18.DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20260407
黄河中游流域明末崇祯大旱复盘与推演
Reconstruction and scenario analysis of extreme drought in Chongzhen era of late Ming Dynasty in middle Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Facing the challenges in reconstructing historical extreme low runoffs and quantifying current drought defense capabilities,this study constructs a framework integrating the Transformer model with an implicit encoding of current defense conditions strategy.By using self-attention mechanisms,we develop a new model that captures the hydrological memory and embeds the modern land surface and engineering regulation patterns via training on the data of the present time.This model is validated against the extreme drought in the Chongzhen era of the late Ming Dynasty(1637-1643)in the middle Yellow River Basin,which achieves a high accuracy in modern testing(NSE=0.82)and reproduces the historical drought events effectively.Scenario analysis indicates that a recurrence of such a drought event today,despite the existing current drought defense system,would cause an annual grain yield loss of greater than 40%and an economic loss above 1.5%of the existing GDP.These findings reveal the vulnerability boundaries of the current defense systems under extreme climate conditions,helping enhance the resilience of a river basin.关键词
历史水文/Transformer深度学习/崇祯大旱/黄河中游Key words
historical hydrology/transformer deep learning/extreme drought in Chongzhen era/middle Yellow River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
覃斐頔,翁白莎,彭辉,严登华..黄河中游流域明末崇祯大旱复盘与推演[J].水力发电学报,2026,45(4):86-103,18.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3080300) （2022YFC3080300）
气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室开放课题(CPRM202507) （CPRM202507）
流域水循环与水安全全国重点实验室课题(SKL2024YJTS03) （SKL2024YJTS03）
