生态学报2026，Vol.46Issue(7)：3695-3711,17.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202503180611
基于InVEST-PLUS-GeoDectetor模型的浙江大陆海岸带生态系统碳储量时空演变特征及多情景预测
Spatio-temporal evolution and multi-scenario prediction of carbon stock in coastal zone ecosystems of Zhejiang mainland based on the InVEST-PLUS-GeoDectetor model
摘要
Abstract
As an important part of the Yangtze River Delta Economic Circle,the analysis of spatial and temporal changes in carbon stocks and the future evolution trend of the Zhejiang continental coastal zone is of great significance for optimizing the regional territorial spatial planning and enhancing the ecosystem carbon storage capacity.In this study,the coupled PLUS-InVEST model was used to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of carbon stocks in the Zhejiang continental coastal zone from 1990 to 2020,and to simulate the characteristics of land use and carbon stock changes under four scenarios(natural development,economic development,arable land preservation,and ecological preservation)in 2030.The driving mechanisms were further explored using the GeoDectetor model.The results showed that:1)From 1990 to 2020,the areas of arable land,grassland,water bodies,and unutilized land decreased by 21.44％,38.02％,19.76％,and 53.05％respectively,while the areas of construction land and forest land increased by 204.29％and 4.24％.Among them,forest land was mainly distributed in the western mountains,cultivated land was concentrated in the northern plains,and construction land was laid out along the eastern coast.2)In 2020,the carbon stock in the coastal zone of Zhejiang was 585.67 Tg.Under the natural development,economic development,cropland protection,and ecological protection scenario,carbon stocks were projected to be 584.24 Tg,580.97 Tg,586.23 Tg,and 585.95 Tg,respectively,representing a decrease of 1.43 Tg and 4.7 Tg,and an increase of 0.56 Tg and 0.28 Tg compared to the 2020 level.3)Natural factors,especially topographic factors,were stable and constrain the spatial distribution pattern of carbon stocks in the long term,while socio-economic factors showed significant variations across different stages.The interaction between slope,population density,and GDP per capita had the strongest explanatory power,with a q-alues of 0.59.The results of the study played an important role in guiding the rational development and utilization of resources and the construction of ecological reserves in the coastal area,and in promoting the sustainable development of the region.关键词
土地利用变化/碳储量/InVEST模型/PLUS模型/GeoDectetor模型/浙江大陆海岸带Key words
land use change/carbon storage/In VEST model/PLUS model/GeoDectetor model/Zhejiang continental coastal zone引用本文复制引用
胡增琳,曹罗丹,李加林,应超,刘永超..基于InVEST-PLUS-GeoDectetor模型的浙江大陆海岸带生态系统碳储量时空演变特征及多情景预测[J].生态学报,2026,46(7):3695-3711,17.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42401349) （42401349）
浙江省社科规划课题(24NDQN128YBM) （24NDQN128YBM）
浙江省省属高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(SJWZ2025006) （SJWZ2025006）
浙江省重点专业智库东海研究院自设课题(DHST22YB04) （DHST22YB04）
