水资源保护2026，Vol.42Issue(2)：169-178,10.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2026.02.019
基于非一致性偏差校正方法的黄淮海和江淮平原CMIP6模式降水偏差校正与评估
Bias correction and evaluation of CMIP6 model precipitation in Huang-Huai-Hai and Jiang-Huai plains based on non-stationary bias correction method
摘要
Abstract
This study applies a non-stationary bias correction method,integrating techniques of quantile delta mapping and rank resampling for distributions and dependencies,to evaluate and enhance precipitation simulations from 23 CMIP6 models over the Huang-Huai-Hai and Jiang-Huai plains using daily gridded precipitation datasets,examining model performance in reproducing both climatological mean precipitation patterns and extreme precipitation characteristics before and after bias correction.The results show that,prior to correction,the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble demonstrates systematic overestimation of mean annual precipitation across both plains,characterized by underestimation in summer and overestimation in other seasons,while regarding extreme precipitation events,the uncorrected ensemble exhibits overestimation of precipitation frequency and maximum consecutive wet periods alongside underestimation of precipitation intensity and maximum consecutive dry periods.The implementation of non-stationary bias correction method yields substantial improvements in CMIP6 precipitation simulation capabilities,with post-correction results demonstrating climatological mean precipitation biases constrained within±10%and average TS scores for eight extreme precipitation indicators enhanced by approximately 10%.关键词
CMIP6模式/降水模拟评估/非一致性偏差校正/分位数增量映射法/秩重抽样法/黄淮海平原/江淮平原Key words
CMIP6 models/precipitation simulation assessment/non-stationary bias correction/quantile delta mapping/rank resampling for distributions and dependencies/Huang-Huai-Hai Plain/Jiang-Huai Plain引用本文复制引用
林娟,李新,张鹏程,陈馨蕾,周义斌,张珂..基于非一致性偏差校正方法的黄淮海和江淮平原CMIP6模式降水偏差校正与评估[J].水资源保护,2026,42(2):169-178,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3006500) （2023YFC3006500）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B240203007) （B240203007）
中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放课题项目(23SWQXM045) （23SWQXM045）
