水资源保护2026，Vol.42Issue(2)：199-208,10.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2026.02.022
南水北调中线河南段水资源承载力时空差异与情景预测
Spatiotemporal differences and scenario prediction of water resources carrying capacity in Henan section of Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project
摘要
Abstract
To identify the water resources carrying capacity level of the water-receiving area in Henan section of Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,an evaluation index system for water resources carrying capacity was established based on the driving force-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR)framework.The improved vertical-and-horizontal scatter degree method and spatial autocorrelation model were adopted to quantitatively measure the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of water resources carrying capacity in the study area from 2014 to 2023.Furthermore,the system dynamics(SD)method was applied to simulate the changing trends of water resources carrying capacity under different scenarios.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity in the Henan section of Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project exhibits a spiral upward trend,and the overall variation trend of the five subsystems(driving force,pressure,state,impact and response)is basically consistent with that of water resources carrying capacity.The water resources carrying capacity of each city is concentrated in three states:weak bearable,critical and overloaded.The spatial distribution pattern has evolved from strong in the south and weak in the north to strong in the interior and weak in the periphery,with the regional spatial difference continuously narrowing.The comprehensive ranking of water resources carrying capacity under different scenarios from high to low is as follows:comprehensive development scenario,environmental protection&water-saving scenario,status quo continuation scenario,and economic development-oriented scenario.关键词
水资源承载力/南水北调中线河南段/改进"纵横向"拉开档次法/系统动力学Key words
water resources carrying capacity/Henan section of Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project/improved vertical-and-horizontal scatter degree method/system dynamics引用本文复制引用
苏钊贤,陈佳川,陈基豪,付豪,丁新睿..南水北调中线河南段水资源承载力时空差异与情景预测[J].水资源保护,2026,42(2):199-208,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52279014) （52279014）
河南省软科学研究项目(262400410162) （262400410162）
河南省哲学社会科学规划年度项目(2024CJJ241) （2024CJJ241）
