太平洋学报2026，Vol.34Issue(3)：31-45,15.DOI:10.14015/j.cnki.1004-8049.2026.03.003
探析中小样本负案例选择——以石油武器化发生为例
An Exploration of Negative Case Selection in Small-N and Medium-N Studies:An Empirical Analysis based on Oil Weaponization Onset
摘要
Abstract
Case selection is a a critical step in the research design of the social sciences.The seminal writing of James Mahoney and Gary Gertz systematically elaborated on"the Possibility Principle"of negative case selection with event/phenomenon onset as the dependent variable.The principle consists of the"Rule of Exclusion"and the"Rule of inclusion".Despite their substantial contributions,the writing entails at least three significant limitations.First,their methods and illustrative examples seem designed for small-N analysis,leaving the applicability of the two rules to medium-N research unexplored.Second,even for small-N studies,they did not exhaust the procedures and methods of negative case selection.Third,their implementation of the"Rule of Exclusion"was implicit.In response to the above weaknesses,this methodological essay applies and develops"the Possibility Principle",proposing a general path for selecting negative cases in small-N and medium-N studies in which the dependent variable is dichotomous.Specifically,we takes the onset of oil weaponization as an example,applying the"Rule of Exclusion".Based on the values of the main independent variables and the dependent variable,our approach spells out three types of structural constraints,theoretical elimination,and empirical supplemental conditions,and use them to eliminate irrelevant cases stepwise.Second,we adhere to the"Rule of inclusion"and retain cases in which at least one independent variable boasts of a positive correlation with the dependent variable.Finally,we adopt Gerring's typological-framework for"diverse case selection"and run random samplings bases on it,then complete negative case selection.关键词
中小型样本/负案例选择/"可能性原则"/石油武器化Key words
small-N and medium-N studies/negative case selection/"the Possibility Principle"/oil weaponization分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
黄婧,吴磊..探析中小样本负案例选择——以石油武器化发生为例[J].太平洋学报,2026,34(3):31-45,15.基金项目
本文系国家社科基金项目"全球低碳能源转型对国际地缘政治的影响及我国的对策研究"(22XZZ008)的阶段性研究成果. （22XZZ008）
