西安理工大学学报2026，Vol.42Issue(1)：82-92,11.DOI:10.19322/j.cnki.issn.1006-4710.2026.01.008
江西省生态福祉时空演变特征与多情景模拟预测研究
Spatio-temporal evolution and multi-scenario simulation prediction of ecological well-being in Jiangxi Province
摘要
Abstract
The study on ecological well-being is of great significance to the improvement of region-al ecological quality.Taking the Jiangxi Province as the study area,this paper used the contribu-tion rate of ecosystem to measure the ecological well-being in the three periods from 2000 to 2020.The PLUS model was used to simulate the changes of land use structure at four scenarios such as benchmark homeopathy,with the evolution of land use system and the spatial and tempo-ral differentiation of ecological well-being analyzed.The results showed that:①The ecological well-being of Jiangxi Province increased significantly and then decreased slightly during the study period,and that the spatial distribution pattern was'high in the south and low in the north'.②At the four scenarios in 2030,except for cultivated land,forest land,wetland and unused land would reduce,and grassland,water area and construction land would expand.③In 2030,the to-tal amount of ecological well-being at the ecological priority scenario will be the largest,and the farmland protection scenario will be the least;in addition to Nanchang and Xinyu,the per capita ecological well-being of the remaining evaluation units will decrease;the eco-economic output ef-ficiency will show an increasing trend in all four scenarios,indicating that the ability to consume unit ecological well-being into economic benefits will gradually improve.④The ecological priority scenario will take into account both ecological protection and socio-economic development and achieve high-quality regional development at the cost of relatively few ecological land.In the fu-ture,Jiangxi should coordinate the relationship between ecological protection and development in the high-quality development and realize the land use development model for the ecological priori-ty scenario as a whole.Among them,Ganzhou and Ji'an can refer to the ecological priority sce-nario and continue to highlight the ecological characteristics.Other regions will take the farmland protection scenario as the basic orientation and take the ecological priority scenario into account.The research results can provide a reference for relevant regions or departments in ecosystem service management and ecological civilization construction.关键词
生态福祉/PLUS 模型/多情景模拟预测/时空演变/江西省Key words
ecological well-being/PLUS model/multi-scenario simulation and prediction/spatio-temporal evolution/Jiangxi Province分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
刘昕然,朱传民,付永虎,起晓星..江西省生态福祉时空演变特征与多情景模拟预测研究[J].西安理工大学学报,2026,42(1):82-92,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42201275) （42201275）
江西省高校人文社会科学研究规划项目(JC19101) （JC19101）
广东省自然科学基金资助项目(2023A1515012528) （2023A1515012528）
