沙漠与绿洲气象2026，Vol.20Issue(2)：1-11,11.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.2097-6801.2410.14004
伊犁河流域暴雨洪水灾害风险精细化特征和区划研究
Study on Refined Characteristics and Zoning of Rainstorm and Flood Disaster Risk in the Ili River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Based on high-resolution hourly precipitation intensity and frequency data,topography,Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),and socio-economic data,this study integrated GIS and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and other methods to analyze the risk of flood disaster causing factors,environmental sensitivity,and vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies.Refined characteristics of rainstorm and flood disaster risks in the Ili River Basin are presented,and risk zoning is carried out.The results show that:(1)In the Ili River Basin,the area of high risk(risk index≥3.96)accounted for the largest proportion(about 40.74%),medium-risk areas accounted for 27%,extremely high risk area and low risk area accounted for 5.76%and 25.04%,respectively,and very low risk area accounted for the least,about 1.617%.(2)Flood hazard,sensitivity,vulnerability,and risk levels all decreased from northwest to southeast.Precipitation intensity and frequency,NDVI,and social and economic development are key factors determining flood-risk levels.High and extremely high-risk areas are mainly concentrated in the western and eastern sections of the northern mountainous area and the southern mountainous area of Ili River Basin,including Horgos City,Huocheng County,Yining County,the eastern Nilek County,Xinyuan County,and Zhaosu County,which is consistent with the historical disaster distribution.关键词
洪水灾害/小时降水/伊犁河流域Key words
flood disaster/hourly precipitation/Ili River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
古丽扎尔·莫明,杨涛,杨莲梅..伊犁河流域暴雨洪水灾害风险精细化特征和区划研究[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2026,20(2):1-11,11.基金项目
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk0601) （2022xjkk0601）
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划项目(2023B03019-1) （2023B03019-1）
天山英才培养计划项目(2022TSYCLJ0003) （2022TSYCLJ0003）
