沙漠与绿洲气象2026，Vol.20Issue(2)：53-62,10.DOI:10.12057/j.issn.2097-6801.2405.08002
气温变化对资阳市消化系统疾病的影响
Effects of Temperature Variations on Digestive System Disease in Ziyang City
摘要
Abstract
To investigate the effects of air temperature and its short term fluctuations(diurnal and inter daily)on the risk of digestive diseases risk under the subtropical climate in Ziyang,Sichuan,this study collected daily hospital admissions for digestive diseases and corresponding daily meteorological observations from 2016 to 2020.A distributed lag non-linear model was used to analyze the effects of daily minimum temperature(Tmin),daily maximum temperature(Tmax),Diurnal Temperature Range(DTR),and temperature change between neighboring days(TCN)on digestive disease risk.Differences between gender and age subgroups were examined,and synergistic effects among multiple factors were explored.The results show a significant association between higher temperatures and increased morbidity,with Tmin having stronger effects in the cold season than in the warm season.Specifically,when Tmin reaches 17℃(95th percentile)in the cold season and 27℃in the warm season,the highest relative risks are 1.08(95%CI:1.00,1.17)and 1.06(95%CI:1.01,1.11),respectively.For Tmax,the relative risks are 1.05(95%CI:1.01,1.10)at 23℃in the cold season and 1.01(95%CI:0.96,1.06)at 35℃in the warm months.Lower temperatures have no significant impact on morbidity.Large DTRs have a strong and delayed impact on digestive diseases,especially among the elderly and males.TCN shows an overall positive relationship with hospital admissions,indicating that positive temperature variations have a stronger effect than negative variations,particularly among males.The binary model indicates that high temperatures have a dominant influence on morbidity compared to temperature fluctuations.When warm weather coincides with larger DTRs or remarkable warming processes,hospital admissions increase significantly.关键词
消化系统疾病/日最低气温/日最高气温/气温波动/协同效应/资阳市Key words
digestive disease/daily minimum temperature/daily maximum temperature/temperature fluctuation/synergistic effect/Ziyang City分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
杨杨,马盼,李璧倩,汤雨涛,周宁,王式功..气温变化对资阳市消化系统疾病的影响[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2026,20(2):53-62,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42205185) （42205185）
四川省自然科学基金(2024NSFSC0773) （2024NSFSC0773）
中国气象局青年创新团队项目(CMA2024QN15) （CMA2024QN15）
成都信息工程大学大学生创新创业训练项目(202410621021) （202410621021）
