中国电力2026，Vol.59Issue(4)：12-23,12.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508057
基于非参数核密度估计的风光水火储系统灵活性评估方法研究
Nonparametric kernel density estimation based wind-solar-hydro-thermal-storage system operational flexibility evaluation
摘要
Abstract
With the rising penetration of new energy,uncertainties on both generation and load sides pose significant risks to power system stability.To scientifically assess the flexibility of a novel multi-source coupled power system(integrating wind,solar,thermal,hydro and energy storage),a collaborative analysis framework is proposed,combining interval estimation of bilateral generation-load uncertainties with stochastic production simulation.First,non-parametric kernel density estimation generates confidence intervals for new energy output and load,and extreme supply-demand scenarios are constructed to quantify such uncertainties.Second,via a hierarchical dispatching strategy,wind,photovoltaic and run-of-river hydropower are prioritized as equivalent negative loads.Considering system ramping constraints,an improved stochastic production simulation algorithm schedules thermal power unit output.Finally,reservoir-type hydropower under-takes remaining system load.In case of load shedding or new energy curtailment,energy storage devices regulate the system through charging and discharging.Case studies show non-parametric estimation effectively characterizes bilateral generation-load uncertainties.The proportions of load shedding and new energy curtailment due to insufficient system ramping capacity are 14.8%and 91.5%,respectively,indicating ramping constraints are critical to system stability.Energy storage configuration significantly enhances regulation capacity,reducing the loss of load probability(LOLP)and new energy curtailment probability by 8.6%and 34.1%,respectively.关键词
等效电量函数法/库容式水电/非参数核密度估计/灵活性评估/新型电力系统Key words
equivalent power function method/reservoir-type hydropower/nonparametric kernel density estimation/flexi-bility evaluation/new-type power system引用本文复制引用
米熠,徐雪松,杨一鸣,邹鑫..基于非参数核密度估计的风光水火储系统灵活性评估方法研究[J].中国电力,2026,59(4):12-23,12.基金项目
国家社会科学基金资助项目(23BGL024). This work is supported by the National Social Science Foundation of China(No.23BGL024). （23BGL024）
