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基于PSR模型的陕西省商洛市布鲁氏菌病传入风险量化分析

刘平孙向东许建勋边青青徐全刚刘晓雷刘娜杨欢段新明刘明远

中国动物检疫2026，Vol.43Issue(4)：32-37,6.

中国动物检疫2026，Vol.43Issue(4)：32-37,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-944X.2026.04.006

基于PSR模型的陕西省商洛市布鲁氏菌病传入风险量化分析

Quantitative Analysis of the Entry Risk of Brucellosis in Shangluo City,Shaanxi Province based on the PSR Model

刘平 ¹孙向东 ²许建勋 ³边青青 ³徐全刚 ⁴刘晓雷 ⁵刘娜 ⁴杨欢 ³段新明 ⁶刘明远⁵

作者信息

1. 中国动物卫生与流行病学中心,山东青岛 266032||吉林大学动物医学学院人兽共患病研究所,人畜共患传染病重症诊治全国重点实验室/人兽共患病研究教育部重点实验室,吉林长春 130062||农业农村部动物生物安全风险预警及防控重点实验室(南方),山东青岛 266032
2. 中国动物卫生与流行病学中心,山东青岛 266032
3. 陕西省商洛市动物疫病预防控制中心,陕西商洛 726000
4. 中国动物卫生与流行病学中心,山东青岛 266032||农业农村部动物生物安全风险预警及防控重点实验室(南方),山东青岛 266032
5. 吉林大学动物医学学院人兽共患病研究所,人畜共患传染病重症诊治全国重点实验室/人兽共患病研究教育部重点实验室,吉林长春 130062
6. 商南县畜牧兽医中心,陕西商南 726300
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摘要

Abstract

In order to scientifically assess the entry risk of brucellosis in Shangluo City,and maintain its status as the first free zone without vaccination against bovine and ovine brucellosis across the country,a quantitative assessment system of"entry pressure×local vulnerability"was constructed based on PSR(pressure-status-response)model.The entry risk of the disease in all counties and districts in the city was calculated and ranked using expert weight assignment and standardization processing based on livestock data collected in 2024 and the geographical features of the regions.The results showed that,based on current control measures and conditions of sheep movement,the entry risk was the highest in Luonan County within one year,with a risk value of 0.445,followed by Zhen'an County and Shanyang County,with risk values of 0.427 and 0.386,respectively,medium in Shangzhou District,Danfeng County and Shangnan County,with risk values ranging from 0.2 to 0.3,and lowest in Zhashui County.Areas at high risk of brucellosis in the city were mainly concentrated in counties and districts bordering other provinces,with active livestock trading and intensive farming.It was investigated that the entry risk of brucellosis indicated a spatial pattern of exogenous-driven and endogenous-amplified transmission,and was mainly from the northwest(entering Shangzhou District and Luonan County via Lantian County,Shaanxi Province)and the northeast(entering Danfeng County and Shangnan County via Lushi County,Henan Province).To this end,recommendations were proposed,including improving quarantine and prevention via distribution of pathways,promoting large-scale farming and biosecurity prevention models,and increasing awareness campaigns on health for key populations,aiming to provide a scientific reference for targeted prevention and control of potential introduction of brucellosis across the city and the maintenance of the free status without vaccination.

关键词

布鲁氏菌病/PSR模型/传入风险/量化分析

Key words

brucellosis/PSR model/entry risk/quantitative analysis

分类

农业科技

引用本文复制引用

刘平,孙向东,许建勋,边青青,徐全刚,刘晓雷,刘娜,杨欢,段新明,刘明远..基于PSR模型的陕西省商洛市布鲁氏菌病传入风险量化分析[J].中国动物检疫,2026,43(4):32-37,6.

基金项目

国家重点研发计划项目(2025YFD1800104) （2025YFD1800104）

中国动物检疫

ISSN：1005-944X

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