中国防痨杂志2026，Vol.48Issue(5)：567-575,9.DOI:10.19982/j.issn.1000-6621.20260018
基于Joinpoint回归模型分析2009-2023年湖南省肺结核报告发病趋势
Trend of pulmonary tuberculosis reported incidence in Hunan Province from 2009 to 2023:a population-based study using Joinpoint regression model
摘要
Abstract
Objective:This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of pulmonary tuberculosis(PTB)prevention and control by analyzing the long-term trend of PTB reported incidence in Hunan Province and to reveal its epidemiological characteristics across different populations and regions,providing a scientific basis for optimizing prevention and control strategies.Methods:Data on PTB reported incidence in Hunan Province from 2009 to 2023 was extracted from the"China Disease Prevention and Control Information System".The PTB age-standardized reported incidences across years were calculated,and stratified analyses were conducted by sex,age,region,and etiological test result category.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the change trend,identify turning points,and calculate the Annual Percentage Change(APC)and the Average Annual Percentage Change(AAPC)as evaluation metrics.Results:From 2009 to 2023,the age-standardized reported incidence of PTB in Hunan Province showed an overall declining trend(AAPC=-3.91％;95％CI:-5.21％to-2.59％).The year 2020 marked a turning point,after which the decline accelerated(AAPC=-8.61％;95％CI:-14.36％to-2.48％).The age-standardized reported incidence of PTB was higher in males than in females,with a faster decline rate in males(AAPC:-4.19％vs.-3.03％).The average reported incidence of PTB was highest among individuals aged 60 and above(194.51/100 000(322 929/166 026 000)),but the decline was slower(AAPC=-2.42％;95％CI:-3.01％to-1.82％).For those aged 15-59-year,the average reported incidence was(75.37/100 000(490 884/651 287 000)),showing a faster decline(AAPC=-3.73％;95％CI:-4.11％to-3.30％).The average reported incidence in the 0-14-year age group was low(2.98/100 000(5491/184 359 000))and exhibited multiple fluctuations,with an upward trend observed from 2016 to 2019(APC=19.50％;95％CI:9.90％to 25.45％).Regionally,the average reported incidences ranked as follows:Western Hunan(94.04/100 000),Southern Hunan(86.10/100 000),Northern Hunan(78.47/100 000)and Central Hunan(76.57/100 000),with Central Hunan showing the fastest decline(AAPC=-2.76％;95％CI:-3.36％to-2.15％),while Southern Hunan showed a slower decline(AAPC=-1.93％;95％CI:-2.85％to-0.63％).The standardized reported incidence of bacteriologically confirmed PTB decreased rapidly during 2009-2017(APC=-6.83％;95％CI:-9.20％to-5.20％),while the reported incidence of bacteriologically negative PTB declined sharply after 2018(APC=-14.97％;95％CI:-18.06％to-11.45％).Conclusion:The reported incidence of PTB in Hunan Province has significantly declined,demonstrating effective prevention and control measures.There are notable differences in incidences among various populations and regions,with the elderly,males,and areas in Western Hunan identified as high-risk groups and key areas.关键词
结核,肺/模型,统计学/发病率/流行病学研究设计Key words
Tuberculosis,pulmonary/Models,statistical/Incidence/Epidemiologic research design分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
黄国军,刘谢,么鸿雁,明辉,王琦琦,郑文静,刘剑君,白丽琼,梁军,于石成,徐祖辉,万燕萍..基于Joinpoint回归模型分析2009-2023年湖南省肺结核报告发病趋势[J].中国防痨杂志,2026,48(5):567-575,9.基金项目
湖南省自然科学基金(2025JJ80682) （2025JJ80682）
长沙市指导性科技计划(kzd2501103) Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province(2025JJ80682) （kzd2501103）
Changsha Guiding Science and Technology Plan Project(kzd2501103) （kzd2501103）
