中国农村水利水电Issue(4)：71-76,6.DOI:10.12396/znsd.2500793
我国水库大坝风险管理与标准应用研究
Study on Risk Management and Application of Standards for Reservoir Dams in China
摘要
Abstract
Reservoir dam risk standard and risk acceptability determination are important bases for risk management.This paper comprehensively considers three aspects including standard rigor,risk probability accuracy and risk level difference,and explores the risk acceptability determination based on existing risk standards.Firstly,risk standards at home and abroad are compared to explore the strictness of our standards.Secondly,the application of the reliability method in calculating the risk probability is investigated.Then,the difference between risk level and acceptability are discussed.Finally,the feasibility and applicability of this paper are verified by combining with the risk assessment process of a certain gravity dam.The results show that the gravity dam has a reliability index β=4.42,an annualized probability of failure F=2.5×10-8,and a loss of life N=535.The risk level under Chinese standard is classified as"risk that should be reduced as far as possible",while it is an"acceptable risk"under foreign standards,which indicates the strictness of Chinese standard.The risk level is general risk,which combined with the acceptability determination indicates that the risk level of the gravity dam is within the tolerable range,and it is necessary to strengthen the risk monitoring and take appropriate safety measures to reduce the risk.The research content of this paper can provide reference for the risk management of reservoir dams in China.关键词
水库大坝/风险标准/风险接受性/可靠度/风险等级Key words
reservoir dams/risk criteria/risk acceptability/reliability/risk level分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
寇海鹏,杜效鹄,林潮宁,周兴波,刘晓青..我国水库大坝风险管理与标准应用研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2026,(4):71-76,6.基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题"库坝系统及附属建筑物自然灾害损害快速精准诊断与风险防控"(2022YFC3005403) （2022YFC3005403）
中国电建集团科技项目"流域水电自然灾害感知预警与应急管理信息平台研发"(DJ-HXGG-2022-02). （DJ-HXGG-2022-02）
