中国农业大学学报2026，Vol.31Issue(5)：313-329,17.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2026.05.24
城乡居民食物消费结构变化引致的耕地足迹及其启示
Cultivated land footprint caused by the changes in the food consumption structure of urban and rural residents and its enlightenment
摘要
Abstract
To understand the environmental problems caused by changes in the food consumption structure of residents,this study used the cultivated land footprint model to calculate the cultivated land footprint caused by various food consumption of urban and rural residents in China from 1981 to 2021.The cultivated land footprint intensity under four different food consumption scenarios was analyzed.Furthermore,the study projected the cultivated land footprints attributable to Chinese residents' food consumption under these four scenarios for 2030,2035,and 2050.The results show that:1)The food consumption structure of residents is changing from one single food consumption structure dominated by grain to a diversified food consumption structure dominated by"grain,vegetables and meat".While the consumption gap between urban and rural residents has gradually narrowed,a large gap still remians compared with the food-consumption pattern recommended by the dietary guidelines.2)The cultivated land footprint intensity exhibits three distinct phases,which are stabilization phase,decay phase,and accelerated expansion phase.The disparity in cultivated-land footprint intensity between urban and rural areas shows a trend of first narrowing and then widening again.3)By comparing the four different types of food consumption scenarios,the food consumption structure recommended by the dietary guidelines produces the least cultivated land footprint,while the animal-based food consumption structure generates the most.The cultivated land footprints of Chinese residents' food consumption in 2030,2035 and 2050 are estimated to be 0.853,0.83 billion and 0.769 billion hm2 under the consumption scenarios recommended by the guidelines respectively,and the cultivated land footprint of food consumption in 2030,2035 and 2050 are projected to be 1.678 billion to 2.251 billion,1.648 billion to 2.211 billion and 1.512 billion to 2.029 billion hm2 under the animal-based food consumption scenario,respectively.Going forward,although China's population is projected to keep declining,urban expansion and continuing dietary upgrading will still impose intensive challenges on the sustainable cultivated land use.关键词
耕地保护/食物消费/耕地足迹/膳食指南/大食物观Key words
cultivated land protection/food consumption/cultivated land footprint/dietary guidelines/an all-encompassing approach to food分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
卢华,孙过,胡浩..城乡居民食物消费结构变化引致的耕地足迹及其启示[J].中国农业大学学报,2026,31(5):313-329,17.基金项目
国家社科基金重大项目(23&ZD109) （23&ZD109）
