中国农业气象2026，Vol.47Issue(4)：572-580,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2026.04.008
基于模糊逻辑和半监督学习的冰雹概率及大小识别算法
Hail Probability and Size Identification Algorithm Based on Fuzzy Logic and Semi-supervised Learning
摘要
Abstract
The development of a classification product for hail occurrence probability and hail size can improve the accuracy of hail identification.Based on 92 hail observation records from Henan Province in 2022,together with radar data and sounding data,nine characteristic parameters were selected:composite reflectivity(CR),height difference between 55dBZ base reflectivity and 0℃ level(H₀),height difference between 45dBZ base reflectivity and-20℃ level(H-20),vertical integrated liquid(VIL),vertical integrated liquid density(VILD),echo top height(ET),differential reflectivity(ZDR),specific differential phase(KDP)and correlation coefficient(CC).By integrating fuzzy logic with a Semi-supervised Learning algorithm based on a weak K-nearest neighbor classifier(referred to as the FL-ST-KNN model),the probability of hail occurrence and hail size grades were identified,thereby further reducing the impacts of hail on buildings,agricultural production,and human safety.The results show that the FL-ST-KNN model achieved an accuracy of 83％on the test set(20％of the dataset).Its precision was 80％and its recall was 83％,indicating high reliability in identifying majority-class samples.Moreover,the F1-score approached the excellent threshold of 80％,demonstrating that the proposed model performs well in identifying both hail occurrence probability and hail size.关键词
双偏振雷达/冰雹概率/模糊逻辑/半监督机器学习Key words
Dual-polarization radar/Hail probability/Fuzzy logic/Semi-supervised machine learning引用本文复制引用
李恒升,刘忠阳,张静怡,张莉,王倩倩,冯丹..基于模糊逻辑和半监督学习的冰雹概率及大小识别算法[J].中国农业气象,2026,47(4):572-580,9.基金项目
河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室应用技术研究基金项目(KQ202312) （KQ202312）
