中国人口·资源与环境2026，Vol.36Issue(3)：159-169,11.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20251015
农村电商对县域粮食生产的影响:"挤入"抑或"挤出"
Impact of rural e-commerce on county-level grain production:"crowding in"or"crowding out"
摘要
Abstract
Food security is of paramount national importance.In the context of accelerating global digital technology penetration and profound transformations in consumption patterns,the development of rural e-commerce is a crucial measure for transforming agricultur-al development approaches and innovating rural business models.Revealing whether rural e-commerce"crowds in"or"crowds out"county-level grain production is of significant importance when considering the assurance of China's food self-sufficiency.This study utilized the"Taobao Village"initiative—a collaborative endeavor between Alibaba Group's Taobao e-commerce platform and local gov-ernments—to construct county-level panel data based on the number of Taobao Villages.The study systematically examined the impact of rural e-commerce on county-level grain production and its underlying mechanisms.The findings revealed the following:① It is evi-dent that rural e-commerce development exerted a significant crowding-out effect on country-level grain production.This conclusion re-mained robust after endogeneity treatment and multiple robustness tests.② The crowding-out effect of rural e-commerce development on county-level grain production demonstrated significant heterogeneity due to differences in agricultural functional zones,county ad-ministrative attributes,and geographic locations.The crowding-out effect was observed in production-consumption balanced areas and major grain-consuming regions,county-level cities and municipal districts,and western regions.③ The crowding-out effect of rural e-commerce on county-level grain production was primarily achieved through the non-agricultural shift of the rural labor employment structure and the non-grain shift of the cultivated land planting structure.④ Major grain-producing county reward policies could effec-tively correct the crowding-out effect of rural e-commerce development on county-level grain production,providing empirical evidence for better stabilizing grain production and safeguarding national food security in the digital economy era.Based on this,to achieve the objective of securing China's food self-sufficiency in the digital intelligence era,it is necessary to strengthen the integration of e-com-merce technology,platforms,and business models with county-level grain production;establish an"e-commerce+grain"collaborative development mechanism;increase subsidies for major grain-producing counties;and ensure that grain planting areas remain stable at safe levels.关键词
农村电商/粮食安全/就业结构"非农化"/种植结构"非粮化"Key words
rural e-commerce/food security/non-agricultural shift of employment structure/non-grain shift of planting structure分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
邓金钱,李曼君..农村电商对县域粮食生产的影响:"挤入"抑或"挤出"[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2026,36(3):159-169,11.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费文科振兴计划B类团队项目"财政依赖对乡村振兴的影响研究"(批准号:2024lzujbkyqm018). （批准号:2024lzujbkyqm018）
