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首页|期刊导航|中国医学装备|基于贝叶斯网络的供应-加工-配送医用耗材库存预测与动态补货策略优化研究

基于贝叶斯网络的供应-加工-配送医用耗材库存预测与动态补货策略优化研究

周晨阳 陆耀 赵燕 陈茜

中国医学装备2026,Vol.23Issue(4):144-149,6.
中国医学装备2026,Vol.23Issue(4):144-149,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-8270.2026.04.026

基于贝叶斯网络的供应-加工-配送医用耗材库存预测与动态补货策略优化研究

Prediction for SPD inventory of medical consumables and the optimization of strategy of dynamic replenishment based on Bayesian networks

周晨阳 1陆耀 1赵燕 2陈茜3

作者信息

  • 1. 上海交通大学医学院附属第九人民医院浦东院区综合办公室 上海 200125
  • 2. 上海交通大学医学院附属第九人民医院护理部 上海 200125
  • 3. 上海交通大学医学院附属第九人民医院口腔综合科 上海 200125
  • 折叠

摘要

Abstract

Objective:To construct a management mode about supply-processing-delivery(SPD)inventory of medical consumables based on Bayesian networks,and verify application value of that in management for inventory of medical consumables.Methods:Main factors of influencing medical consumables were screened to construct a node set of Bayesian networks.The initial scheme sets of replenishment strategy were generated by using Whale Optimization Algorithm(WOA),and parameters training and constraint correction.The iteration and optimization were implemented according to the iteratively updated scheme of the WOA mechanism,and then,the strategy about prediction and dynamic replenishment for inventory of medical consumables was formed.The data of inventory of a total of 1,252 batches of medical consumables that were purchased by Pudong Branch of Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital,Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine during 2023 and 2024 were selected.The conventional management mode for inventory was adopted to manage 607 batches of medical consumables that were purchased during January and December 2023,and SPD management mode for inventory of medical consumables(SPD management mode)based on Bayesian networks was adopted to management 645 batches of medical consumables that were purchased during January to December 2024.The indicators of management quality for inventory of medical consumables of two kinds of modes were compared.A self-designed structure questionnaire was used to assess the satisfaction of medical staffs for the services of use and management of medical consumables.Results:The average turnover rate and accurate rate of inventory of medical consumables of adopting the SPD management mode were respectively(96.76±1.58)%and(98.67±0.43)%,all of which were significantly higher than those of adopting the conventional management mode for inventory,and the differences were statistically significant(t=7.413,9.315,P<0.05).The average out-of-stock rate of consumables,and attrition rate of expired consumables of the SPD management mode were respectively(2.37±0.51)%and(2.19±0.39)%,all of which were significantly lower than those of the conventional mode for inventory,and the differences were statistically significant(t=7.277,10.631,P<0.05).The satisfaction scores of the quality reliability,variety diversity,adequacy of quantity,timeliness of response,and collaborative convenience of consumables that were managed by using the SPD management mode were higher than those by using the conventional management mode for inventory,and the differences were statistically significant(t=2.532,3.272,2.345,3.141,3.737,P<0.05).Conclusion:The SPD management mode based on Bayesian networks for inventory of medical consumable can enhance the management effect for inventory of medical consumables,and improve turnover efficiency of inventory,and increase accuracy of management for inventory,and reduce risks of out-of-stock and attrition,and enhance satisfaction of medical staffs for service quality of inventory management for medical consumables.

关键词

贝叶斯网络/供应-加工-配送(SPD)/鲸鱼优化算法(WOA)/医用耗材/库存管理

Key words

Bayesian network/Supply-processing-distribution(SPD)/Whale optimization algorithm(WOA)/Medical consumables/Inventory management

分类

医药卫生

引用本文复制引用

周晨阳,陆耀,赵燕,陈茜..基于贝叶斯网络的供应-加工-配送医用耗材库存预测与动态补货策略优化研究[J].中国医学装备,2026,23(4):144-149,6.

中国医学装备

1672-8270

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